沃尔卡罗案把巴西最高法院置于量化审视之下：博索纳罗因2022年败选后未遂政变被判27年，2月12日警方密报指控托福利与沃尔卡罗有接触并涉及向其共同持股公司支付2000万雷亚尔（400万美元），随后托福利回避案件。2月17日，莫赖斯下令突袭4名税务官员住处，并同时施加电子脚镣、吊销护照和出行禁令，显示法院权力使用正从“民主防卫”滑向“程序强制”。
趋势数据表明，制度边界在持续外扩：莫赖斯自2019年主导的“假新闻调查”从打击网络威胁扩展到压制报道与处理税务泄密争议，同期法院还推翻限制关联回避的法律。数字上，媒体统计最高法院和高等法院现有1860起由大法官近亲担任主要律师的案件，其中70%发生在相关大法官任命之后；莫赖斯妻子的律所案件量从2017年前的27起升至如今152起，约为5.6倍。
腐败与影响力网络的规模同样突出：奥德布雷希特高管曾承认专门行贿部门累计支付8亿美元，且在相关争议背景下法院一度出现删稿与罚款撤销等决定。民意端出现明确统计信号，政治分析显示超过半数巴西选民把“是否支持弹劾最高法院法官”作为今年立法投票的首要标准，这与10月大选中右翼可能扩大参议院席位并推动弹劾形成联动压力。
The Vorcaro case has put Brazil’s Supreme Court under numerical scrutiny: Bolsonaro received a 27-year sentence for the attempted coup after his 2022 defeat, and on February 12 a federal police report alleged Toffoli’s contacts with Vorcaro and discussed 20 million reais ($4 million) paid to a co-owned firm before Toffoli stepped aside. On February 17, Moraes ordered raids on four tax officials and simultaneously imposed ankle monitors, passport cancellations, and travel bans, signaling a shift from “defending democracy” toward coercive procedural control.
Trend data suggest expanding institutional boundaries: Moraes’s fake-news inquiry, launched in 2019, moved from investigating online threats to actions involving press suppression and tax-leak disputes, while the court also struck down a recusal restriction tied to relatives’ firms. Quantitatively, one newspaper counted 1,860 active cases in the STF or STJ where close relatives of STF justices are lead lawyers, with 70% assigned after the related justice took office; Moraes’s wife’s firm rose from 27 cases before 2017 to 152 today, about a 5.6x increase.
The scale of corruption-linked influence is also large: Odebrecht executives admitted a dedicated bribery structure that paid $800 million, and court-linked decisions in related periods included article takedown orders and later reversals of penalties. Public opinion now shows a hard electoral signal, with political analysis indicating that more than half of Brazilians rank legislators’ commitment to impeaching Supreme Court judges as their top voting criterion this year, aligning with October election expectations that the right may gain enough Senate strength to escalate impeachment pressure.
Source: Brazil’s high court is caught up in a vast scandal
Subtitle: Some of the world’s most powerful judges have an over-cosy relationship with business and political elites
Dateline: 2月 26, 2026 08:17 上午 | Rio de Janeiro