2026 年在纸面上对石油进口国看似宽松：多数预测认为全球供应将相当充裕，因为 OPEC/非 OPEC 减产逐步解除，加上联盟外供应增长，再次超过放缓中的需求增长。今年布伦特原油均价已较 2024 年低约 11 美元/桶，且多数展望指向进一步缓步走低，对亚洲进口成本与通膨是缓冲。
但「低价格」不等于「低风险」：看似充足的桶数仍需穿越更暴露、政治化且法律更复杂的航线，任何持续性中断或保险冲击都可能迅速推高全球运费。乌克兰战争影响炼厂、出口设施与海运通道；对俄炼厂与黑海出口节点（含新罗西斯克的 CPC 终端单点系泊）的打击，以及对「影子船队」的攻击，已抬高战争风险保费。美国在委内瑞拉外海扣押受制裁的超大型油轮建立先例；更严格的制裁执法（例如对中国山东日照石化码头的制裁）显示，针对单一港口也能牵动区域航运与运价；若冲突外溢至荷莫兹海峡，亚洲受冲击最大。
对 2026 的应对重点是「可选性」：区分价格下行与系统性风险，上调情境压力测试（黑海长期中断、影子船队更严管、苏丹管线受阻、荷莫兹短暂封锁等）；在扩大供应来源之余，同步分散航道并提升原油牌号与炼厂切换弹性，投资可接收大西洋盆地货源的港口与储存。更主动运用战略储备与区域协调，设定预先同意的共同触发条件；推动更清晰的制裁与航运规则以降低灰色地带脆弱性；并将能源转型的减油需求措施与供应投资稳定性对齐，避免在地缘瓶颈上再叠加上游投资不足而把表面宽松变成未来紧缩。
On paper, 2026 looks comfortable for oil importers: most forecasts see the world well supplied as OPEC/non-OPEC cuts unwind and growth outside the alliance again outpaces moderating demand. Brent has already averaged about $11 per barrel below 2024 levels this year, and many outlooks point to a further drift lower, cushioning Asia’s import bills and inflation.
But low prices are not low risk: ample barrels still must move through trade routes that are more exposed, politicized, and legally complex, and any prolonged disruption or insurance shock can quickly inflate global freight. Ukraine-related strikes on Russian refineries and Black Sea export nodes (including the CPC terminal’s Novorossiysk single-point mooring) and attacks on the “shadow fleet” have lifted war-risk premiums. A U.S. seizure of a sanctioned VLCC near Venezuela sets a troubling precedent, and tougher sanctions enforcement (such as measures hitting China’s Rizhao Shihua terminal in Shandong) shows how action against one port can ripple through regional shipping; any spillover into the Strait of Hormuz would hit Asia hardest.
For 2026, the key is optionality: separate price relief from system risk and stress-test specific scenarios (a prolonged Black Sea disruption, tighter shadow-fleet crackdowns, Sudanese pipeline outages, or a temporary Hormuz blockage). Diversify not only suppliers but also corridors and crude slates by investing in ports, storage, and refinery flexibility to receive Atlantic Basin barrels and switch grades. Use strategic stocks with clearer, pre-agreed regional triggers, push for clearer sanctions and shipping rules to reduce gray-zone fragility, and align transition policies to cut demand without underinvestment that turns an apparent surplus into a future crunch.