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奥亚波克位于巴西最北端,在伊巴马于10月20日向巴西国家石油公司发放许可、允许其在赤道边缘距岸160公里海域勘探后,正为一场石油繁荣做准备。此举是在埃克森美孚于圭亚那发现110亿桶已探明储量(价值超过0.5万亿美元)以及苏里南的其他发现之后推进的,这加剧了巴西在盐下油田产量见顶之际的紧迫感。

巴西在2006年发现的盐下油田预计将使其到2030年成为全球第4大产油国,但枯竭可能让巴西从2040年起再次成为进口国,这意味着国家将错失数万亿雷亚尔的收入(数千亿美元)。石油机构估计赤道边缘拥有超过300亿桶储量,其中约100亿桶可采,推动南美产量到2030年大约增长三分之一,而中东约增长四分之一、北美约增长十分之一。

这一新前沿位于亚马孙河口附近,该河口每天向海洋输送的河流水量约占全球五分之一,且科学家在2016年发现了一条长达1,000公里的深水礁,同时拟议钻探在技术上风险很高:洋流在约200米处反向,且59号区块目标深度约3公里,几乎是“深水地平线”的两倍;该井在2010年井喷后花了三个月才被控制住。即便如此,巴西能源部预计投资可达2800亿雷亚尔(520亿美元)并创造350,000个岗位,且民意对在赤道边缘勘探的支持率从10月的26%上升到目前的42%(49%反对),与此同时卢拉在12月5日下令制定路线图以削减对化石燃料的依赖并用石油收入资助转型。

The oil agency estimates that the Equatorial Margin holds over 30 billion barrels, with around 10 billion recoverable. This could boost South American oil output by about one-third by 2030. In comparison, production increases in the Middle East and North America are expected to be about one-quarter and one-tenth, respectively. The drilling site near the Amazon estuary, which provides one-fifth of daily fresh water to the oceans, poses technical risks due to strong currents and depth challenges.

Brazil's pre-salt fields, discovered in 2006, are expected to position the country as the world’s fourth-largest oil producer by 2030. However, depletion could lead Brazil to become an oil importer again by 2040, which implies a loss of state revenue in the trillions of reais (or hundreds of billions of dollars). The oil agency estimates that the Equatorial Margin contains over 30 billion barrels, with about 10 billion recoverable, potentially increasing South American output by one-third compared to other regions.

Oiapoque, on Brazil’s northern tip, is bracing for an oil boom after Ibama licensed Petrobras on October 20 to explore 160 km offshore in the Equatorial Margin. The push follows ExxonMobil’s 11 bn barrels of proven reserves in Guyana (worth over $0.5 tn) and other finds in Suriname, sharpening Brazil’s urgency as pre-salt output peaks.

Source: An oil boom where the Amazon meets the Atlantic

Subtitle: Despite is green bona fides, Brazil cannot resist a second run at oil riches

Dateline: 12月 18, 2025 08:28 上午 | OIAPOQUE


2025-12-20 (Saturday) · 492a28ec58c5e044126d36f86601df9acc05e7ff

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