日本首相Sanae Takaichi催促执政党加快宪法修订讨论,表示应在明年的党代会前交出一个明确启动宪改程序的规划,并把它描述为把“理想的日本”写入历史新页。她的表态与Donald Trump在伊朗会谈破裂后警告可能全面海上封锁霍尔木兹海峡的表态在同日同时出现,进一步加重日本在波斯湾能源安全与维系美日关系之间的压力。对东京而言,问题在于如何回应美方期待参与霍尔木兹海峡秩序,同时避免被卷入进攻性海上冲突。
东京迄今未派遣舰船前往,Takaichi曾告知Trump,日本宪法中的宪兵规范将海外作战行为限定于受到直接攻击情境,对非直接攻击情境下的出兵设有实质限制。这些规定让政府得以躲开一场日本社会高度不受欢迎且缺乏联合国合法性基础的战争,尽管Trump曾多次不满日本保持距离,并时而将更多批评指向Europe与NATO。Takaichi一直主张更具主动性与自主性的外交与国家战略,并在星期日演讲中追问:建党七十年后,日本是否已恢复创党时所追求的自主独立。
即使政治声望仍高,宪法修订程序仍然困难。任何修正都必须先在下议院与上议院皆取得三分之二以上支持,才送交全国性公民复决。她的政党在较有权重的下议院拥有压倒性多数,且在某些调查中仍有超过70%的民调支持率,但其在上议院未达过半数,修宪仍可能在未进入公投前夭折。民意亦具明显分化:JNN近期民调显示45%受访者反对将自卫队派往霍尔木兹;70%支持透过补贴将汽油价维持在约¥170/公升;74%担心未来能源供应。
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi urged the ruling party to accelerate constitutional revision talks, saying a clear plan for starting the process should be presented at next year’s party congress and framing it as rewriting “the ideal Japan” into history. Her statement came the same day President Donald Trump signaled a possible full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran talks collapsed, increasing Tokyo’s pressure to balance Gulf energy security with alliance management. In practice, Japan must satisfy U.S. expectations in Hormuz while avoiding being drawn into an offensive naval conflict.
Tokyo has not dispatched ships so far; Takaichi told Trump that constitutional restraints tied to Japan’s self-defense framework limit overseas deployments when the country is not under direct attack. These rules have so far let her avoid entering a war that is unpopular domestically and lacks clear U.N. legitimacy, even as Trump has repeatedly criticized Japan’s caution and at times directed much of his anger at Europe and NATO. Takaichi has long advocated a more proactive and autonomous security and foreign policy, and in Sunday remarks asked whether, seventy years after the party’s founding, Japan has regained the independence it originally sought.
Despite high political visibility, constitutional change remains difficult under procedure. Any revision must gain more than two-thirds support in both the lower and upper houses before going to a national referendum. Takaichi’s party controls a supermajority in the lower chamber and she retains public approval above 70% in some polls, yet she lacks a majority in the upper house, so the proposal can still fail before a referendum. Public opinion is split: a JNN poll found 45% oppose sending Self-Defense Forces to Hormuz, 70% support subsidies to keep gasoline near ¥170 per liter, and 74% are concerned about future energy supply.