Donald Trump 可能对霍尔木兹海峡实施封锁，该海峡承载了约五分之一的全球石油供应，从论证上看极易反噬美国。文章将其比作能源封锁：它是作战行为，需要时间发挥压力，且常把冲突扩大——第二次世界大战前，美国对日本实施全面石油禁运后约六个月，珍珠港才发生。现有仅为两周的波斯湾停火十分脆弱，进一步封锁有把美国推向高政治成本战争的风险；市场与外交仍显示各方仍在等待降温，而不是支持进一步升级。

华府此前要求 Tehran 放弃所有浓缩铀、限制中程以上弹道导弹并放弃 Hezbollah、Houthis 等『前线防御』盟友，目的在于削弱伊朗区域威慑能力，但这些能力同时构成了其防御底线。文章认为，美国在2月28日美以攻击后，伊朗获得更强的新杠杆：可威胁封锁或控制这一关键瓶颈并牟利全球最重要能源通道之一。以制裁松绑换取 Tehran 放弃四项威慑，几乎为零可能；Trump 与副总统JD Vance 对伊朗施压的最后通牒，与战场现实越来越脱节。Trump 在声称胜利与威胁毁灭文明的互相矛盾言论，反映的是否认而非连贯战略。

作者指出，即便有能力封锁经由霍尔木兹的全部贸易，结果也更可能是推高冲突、导致美国深陷无明确胜利路径的战争，而非换取快速让步。美国既未找到清晰军事制胜途径，全球经济也承受不了长期关闸。Iran 虽仍处困境，但在愿意承受对自身民生更大经济痛苦的前提下，反而掌握了谈判主导权；Alex Younger 上月称其握有『鞭子』，因为它能堵塞关口。若避免更大灾难，Trump 慧在停火下以更务实时间表恢复谈判并重开霍尔木兹，因为商品与股市的相对平稳回应暗示外交回归几乎已被市场视为必然。

Donald Trump’s possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, is argued to be likely to backfire on the United States. The article treats energy blockades as acts of war that take time and often escalate conflict: Pearl Harbor followed a U.S. total oil embargo on Japan by roughly six months. The current two-week Gulf ceasefire is fragile, and further closure risks drawing the U.S. into a politically costly war. Markets and diplomacy still seem to be waiting for de-escalation rather than backing further escalation.

The U.S. demands on Tehran—ending all uranium enrichment, limiting long-range missiles, and dropping allies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis—were aimed at stripping Iran’s regional deterrence but those capabilities also served as a defensive threshold. The piece argues that after the Feb. 28 U.S.-Israeli attack, Iran gained a new lever: the ability to threaten, and monetize, a vital chokepoint. The chance that Iran trades all four deterrents for sanctions relief is near zero, while Trump and Vice President JD Vance’s ultimatums seem increasingly disconnected from battlefield realities. Contradictory claims of victory and threats to destroy Iran as a civilization show denial rather than coherent strategy.

The author argues that even if the U.S. were able to block all trade through Hormuz, this would more likely intensify war than produce rapid capitulation. The U.S. has no clear military path to decisive victory, and the global economy cannot bear long closure. Though Tehran remains under strain, its willingness to inflict greater economic pain on its own population gives it leverage; Alex Younger called this a “whip hand” because Iran can choke the strait. To avoid collapse, Trump should reset under a ceasefire and return to talks on a realistic timeline to reopen Hormuz, especially as commodity and stock markets remain relatively sanguine that diplomacy is likely.