Citigroup 的 Stuart Kaiser 表示，资金大量流入非常短期的战术性对冲，并称在过去 6 to 12 months 内，股市对大多数地缘政治事件并未出现显著反应。BNP Paribas 的一项投资者杠杆指标（基于包含 ETF 资金流与聚焦期货的对冲基金策略等指标）降至上次在 November 见到的水准。BNP Paribas 的 Greg Boutle 表示，若未来几周出现由超大型科技股带动的上涨行情，可能推动 S&P 500 突破 7,000；他将其描述为该指数一直不愿突破的心理关口。
Nvidia 在周三晚些时候公布业绩，营收预测优于预期且盈利高于估计，缓解了部分对 AI 支出正在成为负担的短期担忧。Citi 数据显示，上周非专业投资者占股票总交易量的 8.3%，而 2025 年平均为 11.7%，且在 2026 年稍早的参与度降至自 2024 年以来最低。Kaiser 表示，散户交易量大幅萎缩，这些投资者已经退场；同时文章还称，随著 US 在 Iran 附近集结战争力量，地缘政治风险仍然处于高位。
The S&P 500 has traded in a range for most of the past four months and has stayed below 7,000 for most of 2026, while investors increased downside hedging. Put-call skew rose to a two-year high last week, normalized two-month skew moved near the top of its five-year range, and one-month normalized put skew reached its highest level in more than a year. Bloomberg notes normalized skew is measured as (25 delta put - 25 delta call) divided by at-the-money volatility.
Stuart Kaiser of Citigroup said there has been a tremendous amount of flow into very short-term tactical hedges and said over the last 6 to 12 months equity markets have not significantly responded to most geopolitical events. A BNP Paribas indicator of investor leverage, based on metrics including ETF flows and futures-focused hedge fund strategies, fell to levels last seen in November. Greg Boutle of BNP Paribas said a mega-cap technology-led rally in the next couple of weeks could push the S&P 500 through 7,000, which he described as a psychological level the index has not wanted to break.
Nvidia reported results late Wednesday with a better-than-expected revenue forecast and earnings above estimates, easing some near-term concern that AI spending was becoming a burden. Citi data showed non-professional investors accounted for 8.3% of total equity trading volume last week versus a 2025 average of 11.7%, and participation earlier in 2026 dropped to the lowest level since 2024. Kaiser said retail trading volumes collapsed and those investors have pulled back, while the article also said geopolitical risk remains elevated as the US amasses a war force near Iran.