一场被称为「超级圣婴现象」的气候事件正威胁全球粮食供应，对冲基金Moreton Capital Partners因此计划募集五亿美元，成立一档特殊目的基金，专门交易受圣婴现象影响的大宗商品，包括南非玉米、马来西亚棕榈油和澳洲小麦。该基金联合创办人Les Finemore认为，市场严重低估了这场气候风险的严重程度。（关键数字：500）

科学家本月稍早确认圣婴现象已经出现，其特征为太平洋海水升温并改变全球天气模式，可能对农作物造成严重损害。此次圣婴现象可能是有纪录以来最强的一次，全球最大稻米出口国印度已因季风延迟而受到冲击。世界银行警告，圣婴现象可能推高粮食价格超出预期，农民同时还面临伊朗冲突导致肥料和燃料成本上升的压力。

该基金名为MCP特别机会基金，计划在九月底前完成募资，将采用多种交易策略，包括跨商品相对价值交易以及期货与掉期的多空部位。基金锁定大型机构投资者，如保险公司、捐赠基金和退休基金。除农产品外，Moreton也看好大豆、糖、咖啡、植物油甚至上海铝合约等商品的交易机会，并结合量化研究与人工智慧进行分析。

A potential 'super El Niño' is threatening global food supplies, prompting hedge fund Moreton Capital Partners to target $500 million for a special-purpose vehicle to trade affected commodities such as South African corn, Malaysian palm oil, and Australian wheat. Co-founder Les Finemore believes the market is seriously mispricing the climate risk and warns of a dramatic reshaping of the global food situation.

Scientists confirmed the onset of El Niño earlier this month, characterized by Pacific Ocean warming that disrupts global weather and can devastate crops. This event could be among the strongest on record, with India's monsoon already delayed. The World Bank has cautioned that El Niño may drive food prices above expectations, compounding pressures from rising fertilizer and fuel costs linked to the Iran conflict.

The MCP Special Opportunities Fund aims to complete fundraising by the end of September, employing strategies ranging from cross-commodity relative-value trades to long and short positions in futures and swaps, targeting institutional investors with weather-risk exposure. Beyond agriculture, Moreton sees opportunities in soybeans, sugar, coffee, vegetable oils, and even Shanghai aluminum if Chinese drought strains hydropower. The firm combines quantitative research with artificial intelligence and plans to begin trading in early July.