澳洲房市低迷在本季度已使雪梨与墨尔本两大市场的房产总值蒸发约1,850亿澳元（约1,280亿美元）。其中雪梨房价自3月31日至6月25日下跌2.7%，损失约1,200亿澳元；墨尔本则下跌2.3%，损失约650亿澳元。这一跌幅对「财富效应」造成显著冲击，可能进一步拖累依赖消费支出的整体经济表现。

彭博经济的经济学家麦金泰尔指出，房价下跌目前集中在高端市场，雪梨与墨尔本最贵的25%住宅已分别从去年高峰下跌约5%和4.5%。这将率先打击富裕家庭的消费力，而中低端市场的疲软预计将在2026年下半年扩散，使消费紧缩更为普遍。澳洲央行过去的研究也证实，房产财富每增加1%，家庭在汽车等耐用品上的支出就会提高0.6%，显示房价变动对消费的影响深远。

澳洲房市过去30年几乎持续上涨，超低利率与疫后移民潮更推高了价格，但也加剧了世代间的不平等。如今，快速升息、移民放缓、负担能力受限，加上工党政府在预算中削减现有住房税务优惠等因素，共同导致房价降温。麦金泰尔认为，房价下跌虽改善了住房可负担性，但建筑成本上升仍需更高售价来释放供给，加上伊朗战争等不确定性，消费者可能因房产净值缩水而更加收紧开支。

Australia's housing downturn has erased approximately A$185 billion (US$128 billion) from the combined value of Sydney and Melbourne property markets this quarter. Sydney prices fell 2.7% and Melbourne dropped 2.3% between late March and late June 2025. This decline is expected to weigh heavily on the so-called wealth effect, an economic phenomenon in which changes in asset prices influence household consumption and borrowing, thereby dampening broader economic activity.

Bloomberg Economics economist James McIntyre noted that the steepest price declines are concentrated at the top end of the market, with the most expensive 25% of homes in Sydney and Melbourne falling around 5% and 4.5% from their peaks, respectively. While wealthy households will feel the initial impact on spending, softening prices in the lower and middle segments are expected to spread the consumer pullback more broadly through the second half of 2026. Prior RBA research confirmed that housing wealth significantly drives consumption, particularly of durable goods such as motor vehicles.

Australia's property market had been on a near-continuous upward trajectory for three decades, amplified by ultra-low interest rates and a post-pandemic immigration surge that worsened housing supply shortages. However, rapid rate hikes, slowing immigration, affordability constraints, and the Labor government's budget measures to curb housing tax concessions have collectively cooled the market. McIntyre cautioned that while falling prices offer a long-desired improvement in affordability, rising construction costs, geopolitical uncertainty from the Iran conflict, and eroding home equity may further discourage consumer spending. (Key numbers: 30)