政府部门债务/GDP 比率在第三季由6月底再升 2.2 个百分点至 67.5%，主因增发国债以投向基建等项目，地方也加大发债以置换表外「隐性债务」。同时名目增长偏弱、GDP 平减指数长期为负，推升债务比率并加剧通缩压力，形成「负债增速快于经济」的债务通缩风险。
居民与企业对新增负债转趋保守：住户债务/GDP 降至 60.4%，环比回落 0.7 个百分点，且住户债务余额出现自 1995 年以来首次（可比口径）下降；企业债务/GDP 高达 174.4%，但仅环比上升 0.4 个百分点。BIS 指出中国债务比率接近日本 1998 年水准；日本 2024 年6月底为 377.4%，较 2020 年底峰值 422% 回落。对比名目人均 GDP：日本当年约 3.2 万美元，而中国去年约 1.33 万美元，人口老化也将挤压财政、降低加杠杆刺激空间。
China’s total debt has grown to more than three times the size of its economy, raising the risk of debt deflation as growth slows. A state-affiliated think tank (NIFD) reported the debt-to-GNP ratio reached 302.3% at end-September, up 1.9 percentage points from end-June, when it first topped 300%. The outstanding debt stock now exceeds 400 trillion yuan (about $57 trillion).
Government borrowing is a key driver: the government-sector debt-to-GDP ratio rose 2.2 points from end-June to 67.5% at end-September, reflecting heavier bond issuance for infrastructure and related projects, alongside local bond sales to swap out off-budget “hidden” liabilities. Weak nominal growth is also lifting the ratio, with the GDP deflator consistently negative—signals that broad price pressures are deflationary and that liabilities can outpace the economy.
Households and firms are becoming cautious, limiting new leverage. Household debt-to-GDP fell to 60.4% (down 0.7 points quarter-on-quarter) and the debt balance declined for the first time in comparable data since 1995; corporate debt-to-GDP remained high at 174.4% but rose only 0.4 points. BIS data suggest China is nearing Japan’s 1998 debt levels; Japan’s ratio was 377.4% at end-June, down from a 422% peak at end-2020. With China’s per-capita nominal GDP about $13,300 last year versus Japan’s just over $32,000 in 1998, aging demographics and rigid fiscal spending may further narrow room for debt-funded stimulus.
