日本首相高市早苗的经济计划,称为 Sanaenomics,在青井一贵(Takuji Aida)的著作《Sanaenomics: The Blueprint for Japan’s Economic Dominance》中有解释。Aida 是 Credit Agricole 的首席经济学家,也是首相的顾问,他说日本的问题是债务太少,而不是债务太多。他认为,这个国家陷入停滞,是因为民间部门把太多资金放进储蓄而不是投资,政策制定者未能予以抵消,而真正的转折点出现在 1997-1998 年金融危机,当时企业成为净储蓄者,政府则转向紧缩。
Aida 提议每年在公共和私人部门额外投资约 ¥30 trillion ($190 billion),核心是「净融资需求」。他说,Covid 时代政府迅速投资,帮助名义 GDP 和税收上升,同时日本的净债务下降,尽管人口结构比 20 年前更差。他还提到北海道的 Rapidus Corp.,称「新自由主义对日本很糟糕」,并认为当前的「甜蜜点」包括日圆兑美元接近 160、迫使薪资竞争的劳动力短缺,以及对军事投资长达数十年的禁忌结束。
Aida 说,日本高得惊人的债务之所以较不令人担心,是因为6个十年的偿还规则、东京记录总利息支付的方式,以及日本在外汇储备、退休基金和其他方面持有的大量资产。他说,企业部门的净债务低于 0,因此日本负担得起多一些支出。Sanaenomics 接受逐步升息,并将 BOJ 视为具有「支援角色」,而不是 Abenomics 时期的角色,但 Aida 警告不要过早加息,并希望政策支持温和通膨和经济成长。文章最后对高市将这一计划付诸实行的能力表示怀疑,提到 DRAM 制造商 Elpida Memory Inc. 在 2012 年申请破产保护后被一家美国公司收购,以及面板制造商 Japan Display Inc.。
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s economic plans, called Sanaenomics, are explained in Takuji Aida’s book Sanaenomics: The Blueprint for Japan’s Economic Dominance. Aida, chief economist at Credit Agricole and an adviser to the prime minister, says Japan’s problem is too little debt rather than too much debt. He argues the country was trapped in stagnation because the private sector put too much into savings instead of investment, policymakers failed to offset it, and the real break came in the 1997-1998 financial crisis, when corporations became net savers and the government turned to austerity.
Aida proposes about ¥30 trillion ($190 billion) a year in additional investment across the public and private sectors, centered on “net funding demand.” He says rapid government investment during the Covid era helped nominal GDP and tax revenue rise while Japan’s net debt fell, despite demographics worse than 20 years ago. He also points to Rapidus Corp. in Hokkaido, says “Neoliberalism was terrible for Japan,” and argues the current “sweet spot” includes a yen at almost 160 to the dollar, a labor shortage that is forcing wage competition, and the end of a decades-long taboo on military investment.
Aida says Japan’s sky-high debt is less of a concern because of six-decade redemption rules, the way Tokyo records gross interest payments, and the country’s large assets in foreign reserves, pension funds and elsewhere. He says the corporate sector’s net debt lies below zero and that Japan can afford a little more spending. Sanaenomics accepts gradual rate increases and sees the BOJ as having a “supporting role” rather than the role it had during Abenomics, but Aida warns against hiking prematurely and wants policy to support mild inflation and economic growth. The piece ends with skepticism about Takaichi’s ability to put the plan into practice, citing DRAM maker Elpida Memory Inc., acquired by a US firm after filing for bankruptcy protection in 2012, and panel maker Japan Display Inc.