然而，强劲的经济基本面目前正与创纪录的外资卖超产生冲突。外资在单日抛售了高达3026亿新台币（约93亿美元）的台股，使汇率逼近32.50的今年低点。分析师认为，虽然32.50并非台湾央行的绝对防线，但31.5至32.5区间是央行感到舒适的波动范围。台湾央行也已承诺将密切监控全球金融市场与外资动向，并在必要时进行干预以维持汇率稳定，主要目标在于减缓汇率波动而非死守特定价位。
除了科技股资金外流的压力外，高油价以及美台10年期公债高达约300个基点的殖利率利差，也助长了美元需求并对新台币构成短期逆风。尽管台积电给出了优于预期的营收展望，市场仍高度关注全球科技巨头即将公布的财报、AI资本支出与获利能力。策略师总结认为，短期内新台币虽有波动空间，但凭借强劲的资本与经常帐流入，以及在新兴市场中极低的波动率，中长期仍看好新台币升值，并视其为对冲美元走强的最佳货币之一。
Despite global jitters over lofty artificial intelligence stock valuations driving foreign outflows and weighing on the Taiwan dollar in the short term, analysts say this weakness masks the island's underlying economic resilience. Buoyed by unprecedented demand for advanced chips, Taiwan's current account surplus reached record highs, and officials raised the full-year economic growth forecast to over 10%, marking its first double-digit expansion since 2010. Consequently, several banks project that fundamental trade support and strong export momentum will help the Taiwan dollar rebound to a range of 31.50 to 31.80 per US dollar by year-end.
Nevertheless, these robust fundamentals are currently clashing with record foreign capital flight. Foreign investors sold a record NT$302.6 billion ($9.3 billion) of local equities in a single day, pushing the currency near its year-to-date low of 32.50 per US dollar. While analysts do not view 32.50 as a rigid line in the sand for the Central Bank of the Republic of China (CBC), the 31.5 to 32.5 range is seen as a comfortable zone for policymakers. The central bank pledged to closely monitor financial markets and fund flows, intervening when necessary to ease volatility and maintain exchange rate stability rather than targeting a strict level.
Beyond tech sector outflows, elevated crude prices and a 300-basis-point yield differential between US and Taiwanese 10-year sovereign bonds continue to fuel US dollar demand, creating near-term headwinds for the local currency. Although Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. delivered a better-than-expected revenue outlook, traders remain sensitive to upcoming global tech earnings, AI capital expenditure, and profitability. Strategists conclude that while short-term volatility will persist, strong current account flows and low volatility across emerging markets tilt the medium-term bias toward appreciation, making the Taiwan dollar one of the best hedges against US dollar strength.