人民银行在2025年只降了一次基准利率，尽管此前市场普遍预期将大幅宽松；今年进一步降息的呼声后来又被回调。2月居民物价同比增幅为三年多来最强，油价上涨可加强这一走势，长期下滑的生产者物价也可能停止下降。3月央行不再投放流动性，而是从金融体系抽走现金。债券市场同样反映出转向：5年期与30年期收益率利差扩大到约4年来最宽，利率掉期也显示对近期降息押注正在减弱。
从全球看，货币政策转向放松也不再那么可能：美联储先前偏向降息，但如今认为不急，白宫提名接替Jerome Powell的Kevin Warsh很可能向FOMC施压，要求更快行动。欧洲表示不会允许再次出现通胀失控；澳大利亚已加息，彭博经济学者预期新加坡和日本也将收紧。预测被上调：美银将2026年中国CPI从0.1%上修至0.7%，并预期生产者物价在此前预计下滑0.7%的基础上转为上涨0.3%。1-2月工业企业利润同比上升15%（此前连续多年下滑），而反内卷政策压制过度折扣后，房地产疲弱开始稳定。尽管如此，美国贸易摩擦、出生率下降，以及伊朗战争可能引发的全球衰退仍是风险，因此即使未来人民银行降息，更多是政策选择而非被迫之举。
America and Israel’s strikes on Iran, starting Feb. 28, lifted energy prices and unexpectedly gave China a rare anti-deflation impulse. The article says Beijing’s rate-cut outlook is no longer clear-cut: China had not seen a post-COVID inflation jump, and the PBOC’s main concern was weak demand, yet higher oil costs may lift consumer prices from a deflationary zone. China is the world’s largest foreign oil-and-gas buyer and is highly exposed because a large share of crude imports passed through the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic sharply slowed once the war started.
The PBOC cut its key rate once in 2025, despite prior expectations of broad easing; calls for more cuts were later pulled back. Consumer prices in February rose most strongly in over three years, and the oil surge could reinforce that. Long-falling producer prices may also stop declining. In March the central bank, instead of adding liquidity, drained cash from the system. Bond yields show a similar pivot: the 5-year–30-year spread widened to its widest in about four years, while swaps show weakening bets on imminent easing.
Globally, policy easing is also less likely: the Federal Reserve, once open to cuts, now sees no hurry, and Kevin Warsh, nominated by the White House to succeed Jerome Powell, is likely to press the FOMC for faster action. Europe says it will not allow another inflation overshoot; Australia has tightened and Bloomberg Economics expects tightening in Singapore and Japan. Forecasts were revised upward: Bank of America lifted China CPI for 2026 to 0.7% from 0.1% and expects producer prices up 0.3% versus a prior -0.7% retreat. Industrial profits in Jan-Feb were up 15% year on year after years of decline, and property appears stabilizing as anti-involution policy curbs extreme discounting. Still, U.S. trade friction, a falling birth rate, and a possible global recession from the Iran war remain risks, so any eventual PBOC cut would be a discretionary choice, not compulsion.