全球对人工智慧革命的预期与现实产生巨大落差。部分预测宣称年增长可达30%，但主流估计仅约1%，且约80%企业回报生成式AI对营收无实质作用。资金却高度集中涌向少数企业，能源消耗与社会风险同步上升。攻击者利用AI强化勒索手法，各国投入被迫加速。巨额资本压力推动企业寻求政府分摊成本，形成投资与政策快速绑定的趋势。

2024年下半年，多家企业领导者密集前往东亚并直接与政府接触，典型案例包括Nvidia、Anthropic、OpenAI在韩国与日本推进基础设施合作。Anthropic强调强化人类能力的部署模式，并深化其在日本的安全框架承诺。日本在AI采用上位居全球前25%，同时面临高龄化与能源缺口，使急遽扩张资料中心的策略背离其一贯的审慎态度。OpenAI提出超过100兆日圆的经济蓝图，但其「国家策略」论述并未明确来自国家机构。

AI公司正以理论化预测推动政府投入巨量资本。OpenAI主张1兆美元基础建设能在三年内提升5% GDP，并敦促美国每年增加100 GW能源以避免落后中国。若演算法主导经济，劳动、税收与社会责任可能失衡，失业将削弱消费、出生率与认知健康。AI真正的成功指标应集中于减少无效率劳动并提升人类创造力，而非扩大投资规模的表面增长。

Abnormal expectations for an AI-driven transformation contrast sharply with empirical data. Some forecasts cite 30% annual output gains, while mainstream estimates remain near 1%, and roughly 80% of firms report no material impact from generative AI. Capital continues concentrating in a few firms as energy use and social risks escalate, with attackers already exploiting AI to strengthen ransomware. Investment pressures drive companies to enlist governments, accelerating policy-investment coupling.

In late 2024, major firms expanded direct engagement with East Asian governments, exemplified by Nvidia, Anthropic, and OpenAI advancing infrastructure cooperation in South Korea and Japan. Anthropic emphasized human-augmenting deployment and expanded its safety commitments. Japan ranks in the top 25% for AI adoption but faces aging demographics and energy constraints that complicate rapid data-center expansion. OpenAI proposed an economic blueprint exceeding ¥100 trillion despite its “national strategy” lacking clear institutional authorship.

AI firms are pushing governments toward massive investment based on theoretical projections. OpenAI argued that $1 trillion in infrastructure could generate 5% GDP growth in three years and urged the U.S. to add 100 GW of energy capacity annually to avoid falling behind China. Algorithm-dominated economies risk disrupting labor, taxation, and social responsibility, with unemployment weakening consumption, fertility, and cognition. True success should be measured by reduced unproductive labor and enhanced human creativity rather than by investment magnitude.