【老蛮频道】全球政策层面对经济周期的理解被数值性误判放大。文件设定“3 个万亿级领域”与“10 个千亿级热点”作为增长目标，却以扩产为主轴：19 条措施中核心为产能扩张、供给扩张与六类产品方向铺量，同时假定四类人群即可吸收新增供给。政策逻辑将衰退成因界定为“供给不足”，而未识别工业经济萧条的统计本质——生产率长期高于消费增速所造成的结构性过剩。文件亦为今年唯一多部门联合的消费政策，显示扩产逻辑已成为主导性国家策略，并在缺乏其他对萧条的可执行方案时被视为唯一路径。

近两百年的工业经济史表明萧条的关键数据来自“消费力缺口”而非“产能缺口”：过剩商品无法被市场吸收会直接引发流动性断裂，进而产生危机。历史上补充消费力的模式包括殖民扩张、跨国倾销与由美国通过黄金与国债体系输出购买力。现阶段该体系已达到负债极限，美国国债规模突破 38 万亿美元，使全球消费力外溢机制难以维持；中国外贸高度依赖的外部购买力（约占出口四成）因此出现不可弥补缺口。由此形成的结构性趋势是全球重新进入危机与战乱周期，而中国政策层仍集中在弥补各类产能空缺。

中国社会的行为趋势则呈现对“物资不足”而非“过剩”风险的深层心理偏置，导致政策以税收提高、房地产维持与持续扩产削弱实际购买力。缺乏对生产过剩统计规律的认知，使补充消费力的政策工具（减税、福利体系、直接向底层注入购买力）未被采用。制度性强化产能扩张的倾向，使经济运行逼近历史类比中的系统性断点，风险累积速度加快。

China’s policy framework misidentifies the drivers of economic contraction. The document sets targets for “three trillion-yuan sectors” and “ten hundred-billion-yuan hotspots,” yet its 19 measures center on expanding production capacity and supply, assuming four demographic groups can absorb output. This approach defines recession as “insufficient supply,” ignoring the statistical essence of industrial downturns—productivity outpacing demand and generating systemic surplus. As the only multi-agency consumption policy issued this year, it indicates that capacity expansion has become the dominant national strategy in the absence of any alternative executable plan.

Two centuries of industrial data show that recessions emerge from demand shortfalls: surplus goods break liquidity chains and trigger crises. Historically, consumption power was supplemented through colonial expansion, foreign dumping, and U.S. external purchasing-power exports via gold and later Treasury debt. With U.S. federal debt exceeding USD 38 trillion, this system has reached its limit, removing the external consumption that absorbed roughly 40% of China’s export output. Global conditions are shifting back toward crisis cycles, while China continues to focus solely on filling perceived capacity gaps.

Chinese society exhibits a deep-rooted bias toward fearing scarcity rather than surplus, producing policies that raise taxes, preserve the real-estate bubble, and further weaken purchasing power. The statistical logic of overproduction remains unrecognized, preventing the adoption of demand-side tools such as tax reductions, welfare expansion, and direct income support. The structural commitment to capacity enlargement accelerates systemic risk accumulation and moves the economy closer to historically comparable inflection points.