华尔街研究分析师在推销 SpaceX 即将进行的首次公开募股（IPO），目标估值为 1.8 兆美元，这得益于其人工智慧（AI）部门预测的指数型成长。该公司计划以 750 亿美元的发行规模及每股 135 美元的固定价格进行历史性的市场首秀，预计于 6 月 11 日定价。Evercore ISI 预测 SpaceX 的总收入到 2031 年将超过 1 兆美元（高于 2025 年的 187 亿美元），而 Goldman Sachs 则预计 2030 年的总销售额将达到 4,740 亿美元。这些激进的估值模型高度依赖 AI 部门，分析师预计该部门的收入到本年代末将成长约 100 倍。
财务预测显示出 SpaceX 收入结构的剧烈转变。Evercore ISI 估计，AI 部门的销售额将从去年的 32 亿美元飙升至 2031 年的 7,550 亿美元，占总收入的 74%，而太空业务的收入占比将从去年的 20% 以上降至仅剩 1%。Evercore ISI 和 Goldman Sachs 均预计，主要由卫星网路服务组成的通讯部门销售额将从去年的 114 亿美元成长至 2030 年的 1,400 亿美元以上。同时，火箭部门的销售额预计将从去年的 41 亿美元翻倍至 2030 年的约 80 亿美元，这突显了卫星网路和 AI 将远远超过核心发射业务。
实现这些目标需要庞大的资金投入。分析师预计 SpaceX 的资本支出将从去年的 200 亿美元以上激增至 2030 年的 3,600 亿美元以上，其中 Evercore ISI 预测 2031 年的支出将达到 7,320 亿美元，且其中约 6,660 亿美元将与 AI 相关。因此，Goldman Sachs 预估其自由现金流将在 2029 年达到负 1,050 亿美元的低谷，随后在 2031 年回升至正 720 亿美元以上。为了支持这些数据的合理性，Goldman Sachs 将 SpaceX 与 Nvidia Corp. 和 Tesla Inc.（Elon Musk 的公司）等高成长科技同行进行了比较，而非传统的航太公司。
Wall Street research analysts are pitching SpaceX's upcoming initial public offering (IPO) with a target valuation of $1.8 trillion, supported by projected exponential growth in its artificial intelligence (AI) division. The company aims for a historic market debut with a $75 billion listing at $135 per share, scheduled to price on June 11. Evercore ISI forecasts SpaceX's total revenue to exceed $1 trillion by 2031, rising from $18.7 billion in 2025, while Goldman Sachs projects total sales of $474 billion in 2030. These aggressive valuation models rely heavily on the AI sector, which analysts expect to expand around 100-fold by the end of the decade.
The financial projections reveal a dramatic shift in SpaceX's revenue structure. Evercore ISI estimates that the AI unit's sales will surge from $3.2 billion to $755 billion by 2031, accounting for 74% of total revenue, whereas the space business will drop to just 1% from over 20%. Both Evercore ISI and Goldman Sachs expect the connectivity unit, primarily satellite internet, to grow from $11.4 billion to over $140 billion in 2030. Meanwhile, the rocket division's sales are projected to double from $4.1 billion to approximately $8 billion by 2030, highlighting that satellite internet and AI will dwarf the core launch business.
Achieving these targets requires massive investments. Analysts project SpaceX's capital expenditures to escalate from over $20 billion to $360 billion in 2030, with Evercore ISI predicting spending to reach $732 billion by 2031, of which $666 billion will be AI-related. Consequently, Goldman Sachs models a free cash flow trough of negative $105 billion in 2029 before recovering to positive $72 billion in 2031. To justify these metrics, Goldman Sachs compares SpaceX to high-growth tech peers like Nvidia Corp. and Tesla Inc. rather than traditional aerospace firms.