1991年，伊拉克军队向海湾释放约600万至1000万桶原油，并点燃数百口油井；大火耗时六个月才被扑灭，超过700公里的沙特海岸线被石油覆盖，清理持续数十年、当时耗资超过5亿美元，且部分生态损害成为永久性。

当前战争中的Kharg岛附近泄漏于5月6日可从太空看到，油膜约60平方公里，早期估计为3000至近90000桶，仅为1991年规模的一小部分，但Kharg可储存约3000万桶，若遭袭可能造成更大灾难。油轮风险也在5月26日上升，当时可载200万桶原油的Olympic Life报告“外部爆炸”，同时霍尔木兹海峡有超过600艘船受困；美国称已击沉至少160艘伊朗海军船只，每艘都可能成为污染源。

战争使清理在统计上更困难：一艘救援拖船被击中并造成至少4名船员死亡后，第三方援助意愿下降；3月2日至9日，影子船队成为通过海峡的最大群体且数量仍在增加，这些船通常老旧、无保险、身份不明，造成制裁与责任缺口。风险包括珊瑚礁和约1亿依赖海水淡化获取饮用水的人，石油中的苯等污染物与白血病、其他癌症以及肝肾损伤相关；大规模油膜还可能污染油轮并阻止其靠港，从而拖延海湾石油流动恢复。

In 1991 Iraqi forces released roughly 6m-10m barrels of crude into the Gulf and set hundreds of oil wells ablaze; the fires took six months to extinguish, more than 700km of Saudi coastline was coated, the clean-up lasted decades and cost over $500m at the time, and some ecological damage became permanent.

The current war’s spill near Kharg island became visible from space on May 6th, covered about 60 square kilometres, and is initially estimated at 3,000 to almost 90,000 barrels, a small fraction of 1991, but Kharg can store around 30m barrels and a strike could cause a far larger disaster. Tanker risk also rose on May 26th, when the 2m-barrel-capacity Olympic Life reported an “external explosion”, while more than 600 ships were stuck at Hormuz; America says it has sunk at least 160 Iranian naval vessels, each a potential pollution source.

War makes clean-up statistically harder: third-party help has been deterred after a salvage tug was hit and at least four crew were killed; from March 2nd to March 9th shadow-fleet ships were the largest group transiting the strait and are increasing, often old, uninsured and unidentifiable, creating sanctions and liability gaps. The stakes include coral reefs and about 100m people dependent on desalination for drinking water, with oil contaminants such as benzene linked to leukaemia, other cancers, and liver and kidney damage; major slicks could also foul tankers and block docking, delaying restored Gulf oil flows.

Source: The Gulf war makes devastating oil spills more likely

Subtitle: It would also make them harder to handle

Dateline: 5月 28, 2026 05:52 上午