乌克兰同时展现军事韧性和深刻社会压力：小至14岁的爱国青少年每周操练四五次，而估计有300,000名男性擅离职守。面对俄罗斯在人口上为其4.5倍、土地面积为28倍、经济规模为12倍的优势，乌克兰已稳定前线，每月造成约35,000名俄罗斯士兵死亡或重伤，并以50,000人为目标，即俄罗斯估计的训练上限，同时莫斯科把精锐空降部队训练削减到仅十天。
乌克兰的无人机和国防工业是这一趋势的核心：约95%的远程系统由国内设计和制造，打击可深入俄罗斯境内超过1,000公里，一些目标据称现在命中难度降低到原来的三分之一，同时欧洲正准备提供900亿欧元援助。但战争破坏严重：劳动力已从1,700万降至约1,200万，停电使估计GDP增长减少2.5个百分点，当前增长预测为1.5%，5月23日的一次袭击击中了基辅至少40个地点。
公众凝聚力正在统计和政治层面削弱：一项调查将乌克兰人分为46%的爱国者、36%的怀疑温和派和18%的失去动力者，腐败和对机构的不信任作为削弱动力因素超过创伤。强制征兵仍具腐蚀性，约30%的新兵在训练期间逃离，其中一例涉及10,000美元贿赂；丑闻涉及约1亿美元和总统身边高层人物，而泽连斯基正为再打两到三年战争做准备，俄罗斯可能在2026年获得意外的600亿美元石油收入。
Ukraine is simultaneously showing military resilience and deep social strain: patriotic teenagers as young as 14 drill four or five times a week, while an estimated 300,000 men are absent without leave. Against Russia’s advantages of 4.5 times the population, 28 times the land mass and 12 times the economy, Ukraine has stabilized the front, is inflicting about 35,000 Russian killed or seriously wounded per month, and aims for 50,000, Russia’s estimated training ceiling, as Moscow cuts elite airborne training to just ten days.
Ukraine’s drone and defense industry is central to the trend: about 95% of long-range systems are domestically designed and built, strikes reach more than 1,000km inside Russia, and some targets are now said to be three times easier to hit, while Europe is preparing €90bn in aid. But war damage is severe: the labor force has fallen from 17m to about 12m, blackouts cut estimated GDP growth by 2.5 percentage points, current growth is forecast at 1.5%, and a May 23rd strike hit at least 40 Kyiv locations.
Public cohesion is weakening statistically and politically: one survey divides Ukrainians into patriots at 46%, skeptical moderates at 36% and the demotivated at 18%, with corruption and institutional distrust outweighing trauma as demotivators. Forced conscription remains corrosive, with about 30% of new conscripts absconding during training, one case involving a $10,000 bribe; scandals include roughly $100m and senior presidential figures, while Zelensky is preparing for another two to three years of war and Russia may gain an unexpected $60bn oil windfall in 2026.
Source: Ukraine’s latest challenge is how to deal with hope
Subtitle: Besides beating Russia, it must fight corruption and build democracy
Dateline: 5月 28, 2026 05:19 上午 | Kyiv