修昔底德陷阱常被用来解释美中之间的紧张关系,暗示崛起国与守成国之间的冲突难以避免。然而,过度依赖这种历史类比可能导致冲突成为自我实现的预言。
亚洲的古典思想家如孙子与考底利耶提供了不同的思维方式。孙子的《兵法》强调不战而屈人之兵,而考底利耶的《政事论》则主张以外交和结盟来扩展影响力并避免无谓的战争。
为了避免美中对抗升级,双方应借鉴冷战时期的五个原则,即谨慎、沟通、限制、妥协与合作,并在气候变化及防范台湾等热点冲突方面著手,因为不曾发生的战争才是最大的胜利。
The Thucydides Trap is often used to explain the tension between the US and China, suggesting that conflict between a rising power and a ruling power is inevitable. However, over-reliance on this historical analogy risks making conflict a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Asia's classical strategists, such as Sun Tzu and Chanakya, offer alternative approaches to great-power rivalry. Sun Tzu's Art of War advocates winning without fighting, while Chanakya's Arthashastra advises using diplomacy and alliance-building to expand influence and avoid squandering resources in war.
To prevent the US-China rivalry from escalating, both nations should adopt the Cold War principles of caution, communication, constraints, compromise, and cooperation. Cooperating on climate change and preventing flashpoints like Taiwan can ensure that they achieve the greatest victory of all: avoiding war altogether.