随着唐纳德·特朗普向伊朗提供宽厚的和平条款，海湾地区正面临严峻的地缘政治动荡，这可能使伊朗能够对霍尔木兹海峡实施卡脖子控制，并每年征收数十亿美元的过境费。这一威胁危害了支撑海湾地区作为全球运输、货运和金融枢纽关键作用的安全泡沫。由于美国的安全承诺显得日益不耐烦且不可靠，海湾国家必须减少对外部超级大国的依赖，将国防事务掌握在自己手中。

尽管海湾国家各自在先进军事装备上挥金如土，但没有一个国家能够独自成功击退伊朗的导弹和无人机袭击。例如，阿联酋在最近的冲突中不得不依赖法国、韩国和以色列的防空系统。为了解决这些漏洞，该地区迫切需要国防合作，从共享传感器数据和开发用于早期无人机探测的声学传感器层开始，借鉴来自乌克兰的战术装备和建议。

此外，海湾地区必须建设替代性的基础设施，例如通往红海或地中海的管道，以绕过霍尔木兹海峡并削弱伊朗的经济影响力。实施这些措施需要沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋克服它们在外交政策上的激烈竞争，特别是它们在也门和非洲之角具有破坏性的竞争。只有统一的海湾地区才能建立可靠的集体防御，以遏制伊朗的侵略并维护其长期的经济繁荣。

The Gulf region is facing severe geopolitical disruption as Donald Trump offers generous peace terms to Iran, potentially allowing Iran to assert a chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz and levy billions of dollars in annual transit fees. This threat endangers the security bubble that supports the Gulf's critical role as a global transport, cargo, and financial hub. With American security commitments appearing increasingly impatient and unreliable, Gulf states must reduce their dependence on external superpowers and take defense matters into their own hands.

Although Gulf states have individually spent lavishly on advanced military hardware, none can successfully repel Iranian missile and drone attacks alone. The United Arab Emirates, for example, had to rely on French, South Korean, and Israeli air-defense systems during the latest conflict. To address these vulnerabilities, the region needs urgent defense cooperation, starting with the sharing of sensor data and the development of an acoustic-sensor layer for early drone detection, drawing on tactical equipment and advice from Ukraine.

Furthermore, the Gulf must build alternative infrastructure, such as pipelines to the Red Sea or the Mediterranean, to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and diminish Iran's economic leverage. Implementing these measures requires Saudi Arabia and the UAE to overcome their bitter foreign policy rivalries, particularly their destructive competition in Yemen and the Horn of Africa. Only a unified Gulf can establish a credible collective defense to contain Iranian aggression and safeguard its long-term economic prosperity.

Source: With Iran emboldened, its neighbours must put old divisions aside

Subtitle: With a common foe, they cannot afford petty feuds

Dateline: 6月 25, 2026 03:28 上午