美国劳动力市场中“低聘低解”阶段结束后，大规模裁员推动求职者转向次优岗位。Indeed 的季节性岗位点击量同比上升近 30%。传统高流失岗位出现显著供给改善：亚特兰大某交通指挥企业每周申请量从 10 份增至约 80 份，为 6–7 倍增幅，但录用率下降至 15%。固体废弃物行业的垃圾车司机离职率处于公司历史最低点。美国军方提前完成年度征兵目标。替代教师等带有“劣质特征”（不稳定、低薪、无福利）的岗位吸引力上升，其时薪中位数约为 18.50 美元。

劳动力市场整体承压。虽然失业率为 4.3%，但招聘速度已降至衰退区间。约 26% 的失业者失业时间超过半年，为十年来高点之一。雇主由疫情后的“劳动力囤积”转向裁员，亚马逊、Target、UPS、Starbucks 等公司宣布数万裁员。10 月 WARN 通知达到 20 年来最高水平之一。就业信心快速下降，近半受访者认为失业后需四个月以上才能找到同等质量的岗位。

求职者向难以自动化的岗位集中，因为部分职业（尤其内容、行政相关岗位）已出现自动化替代迹象。蓝领与户外工种因 AI 替代性弱而相对安全。移民劳动力减少约 200 万人规模的不确定性为未来可能的结构性紧缺提供变量。个案显示职业转移压力：资深广播员 Danielle Norwood 在数百次求职失败后转向替代教学，完成密苏里州考试并获 96.15 分，进入新行业以维持收入。

After a “low-hire, low-fire” period, large-scale layoffs have pushed applicants toward second-choice jobs. Indeed reported a nearly 30% year-over-year rise in clicks on seasonal roles. Hard-to-fill occupations show sharp supply shifts: an Atlanta traffic-flagging firm saw weekly applications rise from 10 to about 80, a six- to seven-fold increase, while its acceptance rate fell to 15%. Solid-waste firms report all-time-low driver turnover, and the military met recruitment goals early. Substitute teaching and other disamenity jobs gained interest; median substitute-teacher pay is about USD 18.50 per hour.

Labor-market pressure is strong. Despite a 4.3% unemployment rate, hiring has fallen to recessionary levels. About 26% of unemployed workers have been jobless for over six months, among the decade’s highest shares. Employers have shifted away from pandemic-era labor hoarding, with Amazon, Target, UPS, and Starbucks announcing tens of thousands of layoffs. October WARN notices reached one of the highest readings in twenty years. Worker confidence has weakened, with nearly half of respondents expecting four months or more to find a comparable job.

Applicants are gravitating toward roles that resist automation, as firms increasingly cite AI in cutting administrative and content-related positions. Blue-collar and outdoor jobs remain relatively insulated. Uncertainty around an estimated two-million-worker drop in immigrant labor may shape future shortages. Individual cases reflect the pressure: veteran broadcaster Danielle Norwood, after hundreds of failed applications, shifted to substitute teaching, scoring 96.15 on Missouri’s licensing exam to secure a new income stream.