今年美国宣布的裁员中，有 48,414 人被归因于 AI，其中 31,039 人发生在 10 月，占当月总裁员约五分之一。欧洲与亚洲大型企业同样强化以 AI 为由的削减计划：德国汉莎航空计划在本十年末前裁撤 4,000 个行政岗位；荷兰 ING 表示近 1,000 个职位因“数字化与 AI”受威胁；韩国 Krafton 以“AI-first”模式冻结招聘。多家科技公司在削减传统成本部门的同时扩大对数据中心与芯片的投资，使得 AI 成为压缩人员编制的公开理由。在这些趋势下，一些企业出现显著人员下降，例如 C.H. Robinson 的平均员工数同比下降 10.8%。

企业动机常被混合呈现。疫情后膨胀的劳动力规模、关税与消费疲弱促使企业压缩编制，但 AI 也被用于“洗责”，其作用与非 AI 原因交织。例如 Amazon 在 6 月称未来劳动力将因 AI 而下降，但在 10 月宣布裁员 14,000 人时又否认主要因 AI。IBM 预计今年通过 AI 与自动化节省 45 亿美元，并以 AI 代理替代数百个合约与 HR 职位；部分企业则以 AI 为理由提高招聘门槛。高重复度岗位（客服、订单处理、排程等）最先被替代，部分公司直接裁撤整支国内客服团队。

随着生成式 AI 与代理技术快速进展，潜在替代范围扩大。招聘方指出企业仍对工具效果存疑，但若不确定性下降，采用率将加速。高盛预测客户企业明年因 AI 裁员 4%，三年内累计达 11%，并预告自身亦将进一步裁员以“充分利用 AI 的潜力”。多个行业的公开说法表明企业正系统性将人员收缩与 AI 投资绑定，构成新一轮结构性用工调整的早期阶段。

AI has been cited in 48,414 US job cuts this year, including 31,039 in October alone, roughly one-fifth of all planned layoffs that month. Large firms globally now openly attribute reductions to AI: Lufthansa plans to cut 4,000 administrative roles by decade’s end; ING says nearly 1,000 jobs are threatened by “digitalization and AI”; South Korea’s Krafton froze hiring under an “AI-first” policy. Tech companies are simultaneously trimming legacy cost centers while reallocating spending toward data centers and chips, making AI a public justification for headcount reductions. Some firms report substantial workforce declines, such as C.H. Robinson with a 10.8% year-over-year drop.

Corporate motives are mixed. Post-pandemic overexpansion, tariff risks and weakening consumer sentiment are major non-AI drivers, while AI functions partly as “AI-washing.” Amazon suggested in June that AI would shrink future headcount but later said its 14,000-job cut was not primarily AI-driven. IBM expects $4.5 billion in savings this year from AI and automation, replacing hundreds of contracting and HR functions with AI agents; other firms raise hiring thresholds by requiring teams to justify why AI cannot perform desired tasks. High-volume, repetitive functions—customer service, order entry, scheduling—are being replaced first, with some companies eliminating entire domestic service teams.

As generative-AI and agent capabilities expand, displacement potential grows. Recruiters report uncertainty about tool integration, but wider adoption is likely once reliability improves. Goldman Sachs projects AI-driven workforce reductions of 4% next year, rising to 11% over three years, and has warned of further internal cuts to “fully benefit from AI.” Across sectors, firms are increasingly linking workforce contraction to AI investment, marking the early phase of a structural employment shift.