伊朗在与美国的冲突中刻意拒绝任何「下坡道」：Abbas Araghchi 警告「我们才刚开始」，而 Donald Trump 宣称「我们已经赢了」之后，波斯湾商船遇袭事件激增，少数仍运作的中东石油出口码头之一出现清空船舶的行动，华尔街银行亦在伊朗誓言报复其「顶级放贷机构」遭空袭后数小时，要求员工避开杜拜办公室，显示民用基础设施与航运风险同步升高。
地面事态甚至压过 International Energy Agency 宣布自紧急石油储备进行「史上最大规模释放」的消息；布兰特原油价格仍被推回每桶 100 美元以上（约原值 US$100/bbl），市场情绪再度转向升级。冲突已超过先前「6 月战争」的 12 日时间线（原数 12 days），而伊朗声称本次可支撑 6 个月（原数 six months），并试图凸显其「生存性」动机与 Trump 偏好在美国期中选举前快速收束的震撼式作战之间的诱因落差。
停火条件方面，President Masoud Pezeshkian 主张承认伊朗权利（推定涉及铀浓缩）、支付赔偿及「防止未来侵略的保证」，此一最大化立场使 Trump 与 Benjamin Netanyahu 难以接受。权力核心亦变动：Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei 于本周被任命为最高领袖，接替在冲突开端遭击毙的 Ali Khamenei；其首度公开表态扬言持续攻击波斯湾并可能开辟新战线，且据称其家属亦在同一空袭中罹难、本人受伤而未出镜。军事层面伊朗仍握有杠杆，包括难以远距削弱的无人机产能（拦截成本高于来袭载具）、尚未动用的快艇蜂群封控 Hormuz 海峡、以及胡塞武装威胁封锁 Bab el Mandeb；美方不确定何时启动护航，而伊朗援引 1987 年先例称即使多艘美舰护卫亦曾遭 IRGC 布雷，增加护航对抗风险。
Iran is denying Donald Trump an off-ramp: after Abbas Araghchi warned “we’re just getting started” despite Trump’s “we’ve won,” attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf spiked, vessels were cleared from one of the few Middle Eastern oil export terminals still open, and Wall Street banks told staff to avoid Dubai offices within hours of Iran vowing retaliation for an airstrike on a top lender—marking one of the most disruptive days for civilian infrastructure since the war began.
Events overshadowed the International Energy Agency’s announcement of the biggest-ever release from emergency oil reserves, as Brent crude moved back above $100 per barrel (original figure: $100/bbl) and market sentiment shifted toward escalation. The conflict has moved beyond the 12-day timeline associated with the June war (original: 12 days), and Iran claims it can hold out for six months (original: six months), highlighting a mismatch between Tehran’s perceived existential incentives and Trump’s preference for a shock-and-awe campaign that can be wrapped up before US midterm elections.
Iran’s ceasefire terms are maximalist—recognition of its rights (presumably on uranium enrichment), reparations, and “guarantees against future aggression,” per President Masoud Pezeshkian—positions likely unacceptable to Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. Leadership dynamics add uncertainty: Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed this week after Ali Khamenei was killed early in the conflict; in his first public comments he vowed continued Gulf attacks and possible new fronts, amid reports his family members were also killed and he was injured. Militarily, Iran retains options: drone production is hard to degrade at range and costly to intercept, fast-attack boats could swarm shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthis could target Bab el Mandeb; on the US side, the timing and form of naval escorts are unclear, and Iran cites a 1987 precedent in which the IRGC mined a US-escorted tanker despite multiple US warships.