市场面上，投资人近期加速自美国私人信贷基金撤资；Blackstone、BlackRock、Blue Owl 等管理的基金受信用品质疑虑与 AI 对软体公司（私人信贷借款人占比偏高）的冲击担忧影响。相关美国私人信贷机构股价在周四延续数月跌势：Ares 跌 6%，KKR 跌 3.6%，Blue Owl 跌 3%，Blackstone 跌 4%，Apollo 跌 4.4%。
Meister 指出，过去违约率「过低」使放款人得以用分散化放款组合并再度加杠杆来运作，但若违约增加且净利差（net spreads）下降，此模式将不再有效；他预期中型市场直接放款（middle-market direct lending）在资本有限情况下利差将上升，但仍需更严格、类私募股权式（private equity-style）的承作审查。文中亦提到私人信贷违约率低于公开市场，部分原因是私人信贷对「违约」定义较窄；此外，去年 Tricolor 与 First Brands 的失败、Fed 降息与 KKR／Apollo／Blackstone 基金减记加剧撤资。Partners Group 管理资产约 1,850 亿美元（US$185bn）；并在 2025 年录得管理费等收入 17 亿瑞郎（SFr1.7bn，约 US$2.18bn）及绩效费 8.19 亿瑞郎（SFr819mn）。
Partners Group chair Steffen Meister warned that private credit annual default rates, which averaged 2.6% over the past decade, could double in the next few years to above 5%. He argued that AI-driven economic transformation will bifurcate corporate outcomes; compared with private equity, credit lenders have capped upside (interest) but full downside, making the asset class more exposed when disruption increases failures.
Investors have recently been pulling money from US private credit funds amid concerns over credit quality and AI’s impact on software companies that represent a large share of borrowers. Publicly listed US private credit groups extended a months-long slide on Thursday: Ares fell 6%, KKR 3.6%, Blue Owl 3%, Blackstone 4%, and Apollo 4.4%, highlighting a rapid repricing of perceived risk.
Meister added that unusually low defaults had allowed lenders to run diversified loan portfolios and then lever them again, but that approach may not work if defaults rise and net spreads fall. He expects spreads to rise in middle-market direct lending where capital is limited, while returns will depend on stringent “private equity-style” underwriting. The article also notes private credit defaults look lower than public markets partly because definitions are narrower; withdrawals were amplified by last year’s borrower failures (Tricolor, First Brands), US Federal Reserve rate cuts, and recent fund writedowns at KKR, Apollo, and Blackstone. Partners Group manages about US$185bn and reported 2025 management fees and other income of SFr1.7bn (about US$2.18bn) plus SFr819mn in performance fees.