2021年至2024年间，子弹和炸弹造成近75万人死亡，另有更多人死于饥饿和疾病等间接后果，使过去四年成为冷战结束以来战斗死亡人数最高的时期。俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争和美国与伊朗长达39天的冲突表明，一个更严酷的战场正在形成：更强的进攻方更难推进，而较弱的防御方能够造成不成比例的破坏。
三大趋势占主导：无处不在的传感器、卫星和廉价无人机扩大了“杀伤区”，迫使部队隐藏、分散并以小组行动，有时每天只能前进几米；迅速扩散的无人机和导弹技术使空中优势更难获得，也更难提供保护。由人工智能支持的目标识别可以以前所未有的速度和规模定位并打击指挥所、仓库和武器，但被摧毁目标的数量并未在敌人继续发射导弹、保住核心项目并承受成本时转化为决定性胜利。
西方军队在干扰器、反无人机防御、实战化训练和无人系统方面落后，而乌克兰的创新仍不完善，也未必能适用于太平洋的辽阔距离。随着战争法因酷刑、无差别轰炸、袭击医疗设施、大屠杀和集体惩罚而受到侵蚀，战略格局已经清晰：未来战争可能更容易开始而更难结束，各方成本更高，并且对曾经免受远程无人机和导弹威胁的平民越来越危险。
Between 2021 and 2024, bullets and bombs killed nearly three-quarters of a million people, with many more dying indirectly from hunger and disease, making the past four years the deadliest for combat since the cold war ended. Russia’s war in Ukraine and America’s 39-day conflict with Iran illustrate a harsher battlefield: stronger attackers advance less easily, while weaker defenders can impose disproportionate disruption.
Three trends dominate: ubiquitous sensors, satellites and cheap drones expand “kill zones,” forcing troops to hide, disperse and move in small groups or sometimes only a few metres a day; fast-spreading drone and missile technology makes air superiority harder and less protective. AI-enabled targeting can locate and strike command posts, depots and weapons at unprecedented speed and scale, but destroyed-target counts have not translated into decisive victory when opponents keep firing missiles, preserve core programmes and absorb costs.
Western armies lag in jammers, counter-drone defences, realistic training and unmanned systems, while Ukraine’s innovations remain imperfect and may not scale to Pacific distances. As laws of war erode through torture, indiscriminate bombing, attacks on medical facilities, mass murder and collective punishment, the strategic pattern is clear: future wars are likely to be easier to start than end, costlier for all sides, and increasingly dangerous for civilians once shielded from long-range drones and missiles.
Source: Smart tech is making war a dumber choice
Subtitle: Smaller, weaker countries can defend themselves more easily with cheap, deadly kit
Dateline: 5月 28, 2026 05:19 上午