阿比·艾哈迈德于2018年成为非洲最年轻的领导人，并在上任18个月内实现了与厄立特里亚——直到1993年仍是埃塞俄比亚一部分——和平相处并赢得诺贝尔奖的承诺。面对6月1日的连任选举，他在八年里开放经济、重建亚的斯亚贝巴、推出非洲最大水坝、启动预计将成为非洲最大机场的项目，并领导着IMF预计将在2026年成为非石油生产国中增长最快的经济体。

然而，他承诺的民主转型已经让位于高度个人化的统治，下周的投票没有真正选择，而选后“全国对话”预计将考虑宪法修改，可能设立直选总统制，使他能够继续掌权数十年。在这个仅次于尼日利亚的非洲第二人口大国，自2018年以来反复发生的叛乱仍未解决，尤其是约占人口6%的提格雷人叛乱；此前2020年至2022年的内战据认为造成数十万人死亡，政府军还犯下危害人类罪。

与厄立特里亚的关系在2018年和解后短暂改善，如今再次恶化，因为阿比指责伊萨亚斯·阿费沃尔基支持其国内敌人，同时公开寻求进入厄立特里亚红海海岸的通道，使灾难性地区战争的风险居高不下。尽管美国和欧盟因埃塞俄比亚的规模和战略分量而正在拉近关系，过去西方的纵容帮助巩固了阿比的权力，因此应通过贸易和投资等剩余杠杆来遏制不受制约统治的危险。

Abiy Ahmed became Africa’s youngest leader in 2018 and fulfilled his pledge to make peace with Eritrea—part of Ethiopia until 1993—and win a Nobel prize within 18 months. Facing re-election on June 1st, he has spent eight years opening the economy, rebuilding Addis Ababa, unveiling Africa’s largest dam, starting what is expected to be its biggest airport, and presiding over an economy the IMF expects to be the fastest-growing non-oil producer in 2026.

Yet his promised democratic transition has given way to highly personalised rule, with next week’s vote offering no real choice and a post-election “national dialogue” expected to consider constitutional changes, possibly a directly elected presidency that could let him remain in power for decades. In Africa’s second-most-populous country after Nigeria, repeated rebellions since 2018 remain unresolved, especially among Tigrayans, roughly 6% of the population, after a 2020-22 civil war thought to have killed hundreds of thousands and involved crimes against humanity by government forces.

Relations with Eritrea, briefly improved after the 2018 rapprochement, are again deteriorating as Abiy accuses Issaias Afwerki of backing domestic enemies while openly seeking access to Eritrea’s Red Sea coast, keeping the risk of catastrophic regional war high. Although America and the EU are moving closer to Ethiopia because of its size and strategic weight, past Western indulgence helped entrench Abiy’s power, so remaining leverage through trade and investment should be used to curb the danger of unchecked rule.

Source: The imperial vision of Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed

Subtitle: The prime minister’s ambitions threaten both his country and the Horn of Africa

Dateline: 5月 28, 2026 05:19 上午