日内瓦的紧急谈判已将最初的28点秘密计划缩减为19点，把对乌克兰军队规模的限制从60万放宽到80万人，并删除战犯大赦和分配俄罗斯冻结资产的条款，但核心框架仍以用乌克兰让步去匹配俄罗斯要求为主。尽管乌方对新版本更满意，无人相信普京会轻易同意，而克里姆林宫极可能仍握有最后决定权。

从11月19日“投降式”方案曝光、11月25日录音泄露，到11月26日阿布扎比磋商，和平进程在数周内急剧升温，但仍被视为需“数月”才能见分晓的长线博弈。特朗普已放弃在12月前逼乌签字的硬期限，美国内部则在“亲俄、重商业”的维特科夫与万斯一派与情报体系、国务院及与欧洲合作的鲁比奥之间形成拉锯。

乌克兰内部腐败丑闻涉及至少1亿美元回扣、两名部长下台和一名前副总理被控舞弊，使政治稳定风险陡增，而战场上则面对兵源枯竭、俄军大规模无人机和新型滑翔炸弹令哈尔科夫、第聂普罗等东部城市可能变得无法居住。要维持抵抗并等待俄方在冬末因征兵压力和油价下跌、制裁冲击而被迫松口，乌克兰几乎只能依靠欧洲在12月中旬欧盟峰会后开启的新一轮资金和冻结资产决策。

An initial 28‑point secret peace proposal has been cut to 19 points, raising the cap on Ukraine’s army from 600,000 to 800,000 troops and removing both war‑crimes amnesty and any transfer of Russia’s frozen assets, while still centering Ukrainian concessions around Russian demands. Although Kyiv prefers the revised draft, most observers doubt Vladimir Putin will accept it, and the Kremlin is still expected to have the final say.

From the uproar on November 19th to Geneva talks, Abu Dhabi consultations on November 26th, and leaked calls published on November 25th, diplomacy has intensified rapidly yet is still judged to be months away from any real decision point. Donald Trump has dropped his demand for a Ukrainian signature before December, while internal U.S. rivalries pit Steve Witkoff and J.D. Vance’s Russia‑leaning, commerce‑focused camp against the intelligence community and State Department, where Marco Rubio works with Europeans to rebalance policy.

Ukraine simultaneously faces a corruption scandal involving at least $100m in alleged kickbacks at Energoatom, the fall of two ministers, and fraud charges against a former deputy prime minister, all of which raise fears of domestic instability. On the battlefield, Ukraine is running short of soldiers as Russia’s mass‑produced drones, jet‑powered strike systems, and glide bombs threaten to render cities like Kharkiv and Dnipro uninhabitable, leaving Kyiv reliant on renewed, almost exclusively European funding and a mid‑December EU summit on frozen Russian assets to keep weapons and money flowing while it waits for Russia’s war to become economically unsustainable.