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中国地方政府近年来大规模设立 1,500–3,000 家文旅投控公司(CTIC),但这些公司正在呈现与早期地方融资平台 LGFV 相同的高债、高风险结构。尽管 2025 年上半年国内旅游人次 3.3 亿、同比增长 20.6%,旅游收入 3.2 万亿元、同比增长 15.2%,但 CTIC 的经营情况未体现出同步改善:77 家重点国有文旅公司中近 38% 亏损,较 2023 年同期的约 35% 继续恶化。部分典型项目沦为巨额亏损,例如张家界文旅集团连续 5 年亏损,其 20 亿元投资的“大庸古城”自 2021 年运营以来累计亏损超 10 亿元

结构性原因包括:项目同质化严重、市场化运营能力薄弱、资金监管松散、回报预期不实。古镇类项目投资动辄“数十亿”,回收期约 20 年;部分企业为获贷款甚至虚报客流。财政支持因土地财政缩减与去杠杆政策而下降,使 CTIC 资金来源进一步收紧。多数 CTIC 资产负债率常年 超过 60%,融资渠道受限;部分企业转向美元债,但今年仅发行约 10 单。更严重的是,CTIC 资金被大量挪用于填补地方财政缺口,重复 LGFV 的“准财政化”路径。

专家指出,若不改变“行政指令式建设—高负债—弱运营”的 LGFV 旧模式,CTIC 难以实现真正市场化,反而将占用大规模政府资本并复制债务风险。未来需通过引入民资、轻资产模式(如 IP 授权+分成)与资源整合(如盘活闲置公产)来降低前期投入与新增债务。

Chinese local governments have created 1,500–3,000 culture-and-tourism investment companies (CTICs), but many now exhibit the same debt-driven risks as LGFVs. This comes despite strong tourism data: in 1H2025 domestic trips reached 3.3 billion (+20.6% YoY) and spending hit ¥3.2 trillion (+15.2%). Yet CTIC performance is weak: 38% of 77 key state-owned tourism firms posted losses (vs. ~35% in 2023). Flagship failures include Zhangjiajie Tourism Group, which has lost money for five consecutive years; its ¥2-billion Dayong Ancient City has accumulated >¥1 billion in losses since 2021.

Root causes include severe project homogeneity, weak market-driven operations, overstated revenue forecasts, and lax fund oversight. Heritage-town projects often require billions in capex with payback periods near 20 years; some CTICs inflate visitor projections to secure loans. Fiscal support has contracted due to shrinking land-sale revenue and deleveraging, tightening funding conditions. Many CTICs operate with liability-to-asset ratios above 60%, and a few have turned to offshore USD bonds (only ~10 issuances this year). Critically, CTIC funds are frequently diverted to cover local budget shortfalls, replicating LGFV-style quasi-fiscal behavior.

Experts warn that without abandoning the old LGFV model—administrative project assignment, debt-financed construction, weak demand assessment—CTICs cannot achieve genuine marketization and will lock in more public capital while reproducing systemic debt risk. Recommended reforms include greater private-capital participation, asset-light models such as IP licensing plus revenue sharing, and injecting idle public assets to reduce upfront investment and limit new borrowing.

2025-11-16 (Sunday) · ff46a616e0b8135f41b6fb035fb3e47805292e5b