数据显示生育率下跌之剧烈。越南总和生育率从1950年每名女性6.27胎降至如今1.88胎，下滑70%，且低于维持人口稳定所需的2.1替代水准。印度与印尼各自下降逾60%，也都低于2.1。菲律宾目前同样是1.88。人口超过1亿的亚洲国家中，只有巴基斯坦仍高于2.1，但其出生数较1950年也已接近减半。
政策确实强化了小家庭观念，有时甚至相当严厉：印度在1975–1977年紧急状态期间，数以百万计男性被推向绝育。其他地方的手段较为柔性——印尼在1979年推出「两个孩子就够了」，越南则以罚则与职涯限制施压。如今上限正在被补贴取代：胡志明市规划对部分第二胎提供500万越盾（高于2024年的300万），越南对第二胎加给1个月有薪产假，印尼一个地方政府曾出价45万印尼盾（27美元）鼓励输精管结扎。然而，新加坡推行鼓励生育已四十多年仍难奏效，加上联合国警告住房、托育、工时与性别分工等结构因素，显示单靠金钱未必能扭转趋势。
Across Asia, governments that once promoted two‑child norms are pivoting as demographic decline looms. Vietnam’s legislature removed its two‑child cap, joining a regionwide rethink after China ended its one‑child policy (1979–2015) and later allowed three. Officials now frame births as economic and security issues, even as many women cite health, career demands, and costs as reasons to stop at one.
The numbers show how sharply fertility has fallen. Vietnam’s total fertility rate dropped from 6.27 births per woman in 1950 to 1.88 today, a 70% decline and below the 2.1 replacement benchmark. India and Indonesia have each fallen more than 60% and are also below 2.1. The Philippines is now 1.88 as well. Among Asian countries above 100 million people, only Pakistan remains above 2.1, yet its births are nearly 50% lower than in 1950.
Policies helped entrench smaller families, sometimes harshly: during India’s 1975–1977 emergency, millions of men were pushed into sterilization. Elsewhere the mix was softer—Indonesia’s “Two children are enough” began in 1979, and Vietnam used penalties and career constraints. Now incentives are replacing caps: Ho Chi Minh City plans a 5 million dong payment for some second births (up from 3 million in 2024), Vietnam adds an extra month of paid leave for a second child, and an Indonesian district offered 450,000 rupiah ($27) for vasectomies. Yet Singapore’s four decades of pro‑natalist policy and U.N. warnings about housing, childcare, work hours, and gender norms suggest money alone may not reverse trends.
