关键数字显示出典型的成本与工期失控：HS2在2012年方案中预计2026年通车、按2011年价格为330亿英镑（约530亿美元），如今两条支线被取消，剩余伦敦至伯明翰段推迟到2030年代后期，成本将超过1000亿英镑。成本从330亿到1000多亿意味着至少约3倍增幅，同时核心交付范围反而收缩。
希思罗第三跑道的需求端很强，但财务张力同样尖锐：该机场每条跑道航班量超过阿姆斯特丹史基浦的两倍（后者有6条跑道），却计划以2024年价格投入490亿英镑扩建。IAG运营希思罗60%的航班并要求总成本不高于300亿英镑，而当前方案可能把已达每人26英镑的降落费推向翻倍（对比盖特威克13英镑；希思罗管理层称额外费用约15英镑）。
“只铺设两英里多沥青却要数十亿”的原因集中在空间约束、规划摩擦和规格镀金：2014年土地征收估计至少40亿英镑且大概率已上升，跑道还需跨越日车流超20万辆的M25繁忙路段。仅规划申请文书成本就将超过10亿英镑，另有7亿英镑隔音预算、13亿英镑双停车楼，以及490亿总额中的270亿用于航站楼新建与改造，显示英国大型基建呈现持续的成本上行与激励错配趋势。
The key numbers show a classic pattern of cost and schedule overrun: HS2 was set in its 2012 plan to open in 2026 at £33bn in 2011 prices (about $53bn), but two of three legs are now cancelled, the remaining London-Birmingham section is delayed to the late 2030s, and costs are set to exceed £100bn. Moving from £33bn to above £100bn implies at least roughly a tripling in cost while the core delivered scope has narrowed.
Demand logic for a third Heathrow runway is strong, but the financing tension is equally sharp: the airport handles more than twice as many flights per runway as Amsterdam Schiphol (which has six runways), yet expansion is priced at £49bn in 2024 terms. IAG runs 60% of Heathrow flights and supports the runway only at £30bn or less, while the current plan could double landing charges already at £26 per passenger (vs £13 at Gatwick), even as Heathrow leadership cites about a £15 increment.
Why “just over two miles of asphalt” costs billions is explained by physical constraints, planning friction, and gold-plated scope: land acquisition was estimated in 2014 at at least £4bn and is likely higher now, and the runway must pass over one of the busiest parts of the M25 with over 200,000 vehicles daily. Planning paperwork alone is on track to exceed £1bn, with £700m for noise insulation, £1.3bn for two car parks, and £27bn of the £49bn total for terminal rebuilds, indicating a persistent UK trend of rising infrastructure costs under misaligned incentives.
Source: Heathrow’s expansion is on track to be eye-wateringly expensive
Subtitle: This is not inevitable
Dateline: 2月 26, 2026 06:55 上午