到2024年前后，研究生入学考试辅导老师王先生发现班级学生人数暴跌超过一半，但他投放的国考辅导广告却收到数百条回复，新班迅速满员，甚至有两名香港毕业生专程飞来。趋势在数据上同样明显：2023至2026年硕士报名人数从470万降至340万（下降三分之一），而2021至2026年通过资格审查的国考报名人数翻倍以上至370万并创纪录，且国考热度首次超过考研。
竞争强度差异巨大：去年约20%的考研考生被录取，而今年国考仅有3.8万个岗位，意味着去年11月参加笔试者中约99%在流程于年中结束前将落空。备考投入也在上升，例如有人连续三个月每天9点到21点刷成千上万道题；一名法学硕士班级中约80%计划参加国考，且因胜算极低，不少人同时报考省市级考试作为备选。
驱动因素是疲弱的就业市场与教育回报递减：在2020至2022年“清零”时期，许多人用通常为期三年的硕士学习来推迟求职，但此后考研人数下滑。智联招聘2024年调查显示春招阶段44.4%的研究生拿到offer，比本科低1个百分点、比职校低12个百分点；与此同时，有人甚至放弃京东年薪30万元（约4.3万美元）的录用去追求体制内的确定性，这种人才流向可能进一步削弱私营部门活力并形成自我强化。
Around 2024, tutor Mr Wang saw graduate-admissions test enrollments in his classes plunge by more than half, yet a civil-service-exam tutoring ad drew hundreds of replies and quickly filled a new class, including two Hong Kong graduates who flew in. The pivot is mirrored in national figures: from 2023 to 2026, master’s-exam registrations fell by a third from 4.7m to 3.4m, while from 2021 to 2026 civil-service-exam applicants who passed checks more than doubled to a record 3.7m, with civil-service interest exceeding master’s admissions for the first time.
Selectivity highlights the tradeoff: about 20% of master’s-exam takers were accepted last year, but this year’s civil-service exam offers 38,000 positions, implying roughly 99% of those who sat the written test in November will be rejected after interviews conclude mid-year. Preparation is intensive, with examples of three months of 9am-to-9pm drilling through thousands of questions, and one law master’s class where about 80% plan to sit the exam and many also enter provincial or city exams as a backup.
The shift reflects a bleak job market and diminishing returns to staying in education: during the 2020–2022 zero-covid period, many used a typically three-year master’s to delay job hunting, but master’s-exam participation has since dropped. A 2024 Zhaopin survey found 44.4% of postgraduates had an offer by spring recruitment, 1 percentage point below bachelor’s holders and 12 points below vocational trainees; some candidates even forgo JD.com pay of 300,000 yuan ($43,000) per year for the certainty of government work, a talent reallocation that could weaken private-sector dynamism and become self-reinforcing.
Source: China’s graduates face a whole new set of gruelling tests
Subtitle: They prefer certainty to good pay
Dateline: 2月 05, 2026 04:18 上午