这波下跌始于去年 9 月，当时 Federal Reserve 开始降息，压低通常随借贷成本变动的浮动利率贷款收益。同期，First Brands 与 Tricolor 倒闭，加剧了对企业信用品质与承作标准的疑虑。过去两周，多家大型基金加速冲销并下调股利，包括 KKR、BlackRock、New Mountain、Apollo Global、Blackstone、Morgan Stanley；这与此前十年年化总回报超过 8% 的吸引力形成明显反差。
压力已集中到可量化的弱点。BlackRock TCP Capital 在 1 月下旬将资产价值下修 19%，其一年总回报为负 43%，且其市价相对净资产价值折价超过 50%。依 Raymond James，Apollo 的 MidCap Financial Investment 折价 34%，KKR 的 FS KKR Capital 折价 51%。问题贷款涵盖 Medallia（2022 年由 Thoma Bravo 以 64 亿美元，原文 US$6.4bn，收购）等案例，促使部分财富管理机构转向防御并削减 BDC 部位。
Investors are dumping publicly traded private credit funds (BDCs) as bad-loan losses rise and concern grows that AI could damage the software companies they financed. Based on FT calculations from the S&P BDC index, BDCs now trade at 82% of net asset value, their deepest discount since late 2022; in September last year, they traded above 100 cents on the dollar. The reversal is also casting a shadow over the roughly $2tn private credit industry, while redemptions are rising in semi-liquid funds.
The decline began last September, when the Federal Reserve started cutting rates, reducing returns on floating-rate loans that usually move with borrowing costs. At the same time, the collapses of First Brands and Tricolor intensified doubts about corporate credit quality and underwriting standards. Over the past two weeks, write-offs and dividend cuts accelerated across major managers, including KKR, BlackRock, New Mountain, Apollo Global, Blackstone, and Morgan Stanley, sharply contrasting with the sector’s more than 8% annualized total returns over the prior decade.
Stress is now concentrated in measurable weak points. BlackRock TCP Capital marked down asset values by 19% in late January, has a minus 43% one-year total return, and trades at more than a 50% discount to NAV. According to Raymond James, Apollo’s MidCap Financial Investment trades at a 34% discount and KKR’s FS KKR Capital at 51%. Problem loans include Medallia, acquired by Thoma Bravo for $6.4bn in 2022, pushing some wealth managers into defense and lower BDC exposure.