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这篇文章以讽刺口吻解读 PwC France 于 2026 年 1 月发布的《Lunar Market Assessment》,其核心主张是月球正从科学探索目标转向可持续的人类与商业活动平台。PwC 预测,月球造访量将在 2030 年代后半开始上升,并在 2036 年因技术与监管瓶颈缓解而出现商业载客。即使在「乐观」情境下,到世纪中叶也大致只有数百人真正登月。

在定价方法上,报告使用地球极端案例作代理:例如辛巴威行动数据约 44 美元/GB、古巴月均网路合约约 211 美元。其高端基准包括 NASA 私人 ISS 造访约 35,000 美元/晚,以及 Axiom 约 50–55 百万美元/人、约 1.5 周(约 10.5 天)任务,折合约 5 百万美元/日(含发射与训练);早期 Soyuz/ISS 太空游客也曾支付每日数百万美元。这些数字被用来界定早期月球住宿的上限区间。

PwC 综合多种方法后给出的区间是:先驱阶段(2026–2030)月球住宿约 300,000 美元/人/日,随基础设施与营运成熟而下降,到 2040 年代后期约 100,000 美元/人/日。这代表名目价格下降约 200,000 美元/日,约为 67% 的降幅。即使如此,该水准仍意味月球旅游在可见未来主要只属于极少数高资产先行者。

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The article reads PwC France’s January 2026 Lunar Market Assessment through a satirical lens, but its core claim is that the Moon is shifting from a scientific target to a platform for sustained human and commercial activity. PwC expects lunar visits to rise in the second half of the 2030s, with commercial passenger traffic starting in 2036 as technical and regulatory bottlenecks ease. Even in an optimistic case, only a few hundred people may reach the lunar surface by mid-century.

For pricing logic, the report uses extreme Earth proxies: about $44/GB mobile data in Zimbabwe and about $211 per month internet contracts in Cuba. Its upper-end benchmarks include NASA private ISS visits at roughly $35,000 per night, plus Axiom missions at about $50–55 million per person for around 1.5 weeks (about 10.5 days), or roughly $5 million per day including launch and training; early Soyuz/ISS tourists also paid several million dollars per day. These figures anchor a ceiling for first-wave lunar accommodation.

PwC’s triangulated range places early lunar accommodation near $300,000 per person per day in the pioneering phase (2026–2030), then falling as infrastructure and operations mature to around $100,000 per person per day by the late 2040s. That implies a nominal decline of about $200,000 per day, or roughly 67%. Even after that drop, the level remains prohibitive for almost all travelers, implying a market limited to a very small group of high-net-worth pioneers.
2026-03-05 (Thursday) · 5bd45d32e67bd0e099af972bb8dbbf7e1a62fd8c