多种迹象显示市场正处于泡沫边缘，包括SpaceX新发行债券面临投资人质疑、国际清算银行（BIS）警告AI投资热潮可能演变成崩溃，以及经调整后的股票估值指标显示出历史罕见的估值泡沫。
投资人已意识到AI支出难以在短期内转化为实际营收，导致微软和Meta等大型科技股下跌。相较之下，晶片制造商股价暴涨，小盘股表现优于大盘，显示旧的AI交易模式已经结束，市场正转向晶片狂热和寻求实际效益的新AI交易阶段。
At the mid-point of 2026, the seemingly stable and steady rise in global and US stock markets masks a significant shift in the sources of investment returns. Warnings regarding the structural cracks and bubbly characteristics of the AI business model are growing increasingly deafening.
Multiple distress signals suggest the market is in bubble territory, including the skepticism faced by SpaceX's newly issued bonds, warnings from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) that AI investment exuberance could turn into a bust, and adjusted stock valuation metrics that indicate an extreme historical bubble.
Investors are starting to realize that massive AI spending may not translate into real-life revenues in the near term, causing major tech stocks like Microsoft and Meta to decline. In contrast, semiconductor chipmakers are surging and small-cap stocks are outperforming, signaling the end of the old AI trade and the rise of a new phase driven by chip mania and practical benefits.