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传统的估值规则(OFVRs)对于长期投资至关重要,因为仅依赖缺乏现金流但具有「内在价值」的资产(如 SpaceX 或郁金香球茎)在炒作消退时会带来极大风险。

作者认为 SpaceX 目前的估值过高,其现金流无法支撑其股价,而坚持传统估值规则能帮助投资者在市场预期落空时避免重大损失,并寻找如英特尔般被低估的优质股票。

虽然科技股泡沫可能正在破裂,但这不一定会波及所有股票,投资者若能专注于拥有实质估值支持的非科技增长股或地产股,将能在长期内获得稳定回报。

Traditional valuation rules (OFVRs) are essential for long-term investing, as relying solely on assets with "intrinsic value" but no cash flows, such as SpaceX or tulip bulbs, carries immense risk when the hype fades.

The author argues that SpaceX is currently overvalued because its cash flows cannot support its price, and that adhering to traditional valuation rules helps investors avoid heavy losses when expectations fail and helps identify undervalued stocks like Intel.

Although the technology bubble may be deflating, it does not have to impact all equities; investors who focus on non-tech growth stocks or property shares with strong valuation support should be well-positioned for the long term.

2026-07-05 (Sunday) · 9af8a04c2646adf0e2a1366f6d6e2aae9ed3b20a