犯罪是选民的首要关切：63%的智利人担心犯罪，这是在受访的30个国家中第二高的比例。总统选举第一轮在11月16日举行，决选很可能在12月14日；宪法禁止现任者加布里埃尔·博里奇连任。左派候选人、共产党员珍妮特·哈拉有望赢得第一轮，但不太可能达到避免决选所需的50%，将面对领先的右翼竞争者。

安全与移民主导了竞选。极端保守的何塞·安东尼奥·卡斯特，曾在2021年决选中落败，是最可能的对手；他强调边境管控和驱逐。智利约有2000万人口，近200万人出生在国外（约10%），约34万人无证，多数在2018年后抵达。犯罪指标上升：有组织犯罪相关暴力在2022至2023年间跳升了37%；绑架数为十年来最高。谋杀率从2018年的每10万人4.5人升至2022年的6.7，2023年降至6.0，今年预计约为5.0。

首次实行强制投票提高了爆冷可能性。中间偏右的埃夫琳·马特海曾领先，但被卡斯特超过；更右翼的约翰内斯·凯泽增加了不稳定性。民调显示卡斯特或马特海在决选中可能击败哈拉；若右翼候选人在12月获胜，右翼政党可能在两院获得自1990年智利恢复民主以来的首次多数，可能在安全、移民和支出政策上带来转向。

Crime is voters’ top concern: 63% of Chileans worry about crime, the second-highest share among 30 countries surveyed. The presidential first round is on November 16, with a runoff likely on December 14; the constitution bars incumbent Gabriel Boric from a consecutive term. The left’s candidate, Jeannette Jara (Communist), is positioned to win the first round but is unlikely to reach the 50% needed to avoid a runoff against the leading right-wing contender.

Security and immigration dominate the campaign. José Antonio Kast, an ultraconservative who lost the 2021 runoff, is the most probable rival and emphasizes border controls and deportations. Chile has about 20 million people, nearly 2 million foreign-born (~10%), and roughly 340,000 undocumented migrants, most arriving after 2018. Crime indicators rose: organized‑crime violence jumped 37% between 2022 and 2023; kidnappings were the highest in a decade. The murder rate rose from 4.5 per 100,000 in 2018 to 6.7 in 2022, fell to 6.0 in 2023 and is on track to about 5.0 this year.

Mandatory voting for the first time raises upset possibilities. Evelyn Matthei, the centre‑right establishment option, was overtaken by Kast; the farther‑right Johannes Kaiser adds volatility. Polls indicate Kast or Matthei would likely beat Jara in a runoff; if a right‑wing candidate wins in December, right‑wing parties could gain a majority in both chambers for the first time since Chile returned to democracy in 1990, potentially shifting policy on security, immigration and public spending.