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封锁结束后的临时措施有变成长期现实的风险:两百万居民面对一片被夷平的领土,但尚无重建行动。哈马斯拒绝解除武装,阿拉伯国家支持的埃及重建方案——分阶段重建或在以色列控制的“黄线”土地上重建——因此停滞;后者不受欢迎,因为几乎没有巴勒斯坦人居住在那里且阿拉伯国家反对可能的永久边界。加萨人急需住房、工作和服务,但缺乏可行计划。

规模巨大:联合国(八月)估计超过320,000套住房被摧毁或受损——是2014年战争的18倍——约120万人(占加萨人口的60%)无家可归。自停火以来允许进入的帐篷不到20,000顶。大约85%的企业和近90%的农地与农业水井被毁;77%的道路被炸毁或被坦克破坏。估计有6,000万吨瓦砾待清理。埃及方案提出先清理瓦砾,然后进行一个为期4.5年的重建阶段,但工程师估计仅清理瓦砾就接近六年;所有物资需经拉法过境,该处由以色列保留否决权。

资金与政治阻碍重建:埃及估算重建费用为530亿美元,联合国估70亿美元(注:应为700亿美元),捐助国要求哈马斯解除武装并部署国际维和部队(特朗普寻求两年授权)。阿拉伯国家大多拒绝派兵;替代方案——在以色列控制土地上建模块化城镇——面临法律、行动自由与主权反对,并有永久分裂的风险。预计将是康复而非全面重建:阿联酋作为即时措施经由管道每天提供800万升海水淡化水。

Temporary measures risk becoming permanent across Gaza after the ceasefire: two million residents face a flattened territory with no reconstruction yet. Hamas refuses to disarm, so an Arab-backed Egyptian plan—rebuilding in phases or on Israeli-controlled "yellow line" land—stalls; the latter is unpopular because few Palestinians live there and Arab states oppose a possible permanent border. Gazans urgently need homes, jobs and services, but workable plans are absent.

The scale is vast: the UN (August) estimates over 320,000 homes destroyed or damaged—18 times the 2014 war—and about 1.2 million people (60% of Gaza) are homeless. Fewer than 20,000 tents have entered since the ceasefire. Around 85% of businesses and nearly 90% of farmland and agricultural wells are ruined; 77% of roads have been bombed or torn up. Some 60 million tonnes of rubble must be cleared. Egypt’s scheme proposes rubble clearance followed by a 4.5‑year rebuilding phase, but engineers estimate clearance alone will take closer to six years; all materials must transit Rafah, where Israel holds a veto.

Money and politics block reconstruction: Egypt’s cost estimate is $53 billion versus the UN’s $70 billion, and donors demand Hamas disarm and an international peacekeeping force (Mr Trump seeks a two‑year mandate). Arab states have mostly declined troop commitments; alternatives—modular towns on Israeli-held land—face legal, movement and sovereignty objections and risk permanent fragmentation. Expect rehabilitation, not full reconstruction: the UAE supplied 8 million litres per day of desalinated water via a pipeline as an immediate measure.

2025-11-15 (Saturday) · 0e95afb0b3e7cce6d00e0697aa4b8db08a0cf5f2