第三次海湾战争进入第五周，霍尔木兹海峡基本封锁使全球约15%的石油无法到达客户，除伊朗外，所有海湾国家都下调产量并使石油出口收益下跌。伊朗却实现了与战争叙事相反的结果，油轮仍持续穿越海峡，其日油气销售收入几乎是2月28日炸弹开启前的两倍，当前出口量估计为2.4—2.8百万桶/日（其中原油1.5—1.8百万桶/日）。
伊朗的石油体系已重构为由“销售—运输—支付”三大支柱组成并高度中央化于伊斯兰革命卫队的网络，Quds部队据称掌握约25%原油产量。通常90%的原油来自Kharg，但即便在美军袭击与空袭风险下，伊朗仍采用应急脱缆、转接续运、走廊绕行与身份伪装等方式维持出货，并用Jask、Lavan、Sirri终端分流，在高负荷时可补足Kharg约25%的吞吐能力，而单船货值约为1.5亿—2亿美元。
中国吸收了伊朗逾90%的石油，主要是山东约100家“茶壶式”小炼厂；伊朗轻质油对布伦特折扣已由战前18—24美元/桶收窄到7—12美元/桶，并因运费和交付条件而在华交付价格高于布伦特。美国三月末对海上约1.5亿桶伊朗油实行豁免后，交易方仍频繁更换证件、伪造报文并关闭转发器，以掩盖来源，支付端也通过多层壳公司信托账户运行，战争期间一组约6—7十亿美金账户资金持续迁移、增加层级，进一步提升追踪难度的同时维持现金流。
The third Gulf war is now in its fifth week, and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz is blocking about 15% of global oil from reaching buyers, while all Gulf producers except Iran have cut output and seen export income fall. Iran stands out: its tankers keep sailing, and daily oil revenue is nearly double the pre-February-28 level, with exports estimated at 2.4–2.8 million bpd, including 1.5–1.8 million bpd of crude.
Iran has reorganized its oil system into a three-pillar model dominated by the IRGC—sales, shipping, and payment—where the Quds Force is said to control about 25% of crude output. Although roughly 90% of crude normally leaves via Kharg, the country keeps exports moving through emergency release procedures, ship identity swaps, corridor routing, and substitute terminals at Jask, Lavan, and Sirri that can cover about 25% of Kharg’s throughput when maxed, with cargo values of roughly $150–$200 million per shipment.
China absorbs more than 90% of Iran’s oil, mostly through about 100 small Shandong refineries, and discounts on Iranian Light have narrowed from $18–$24 per barrel to $7–$12, making delivered Iranian crude to China more expensive than Brent at times as Brent futures sit near $112, around 85% above pre-war levels. Even after the U.S. March waiver for nearly 150 million barrels already at sea, buyers still use forged documents and spoofing to hide origin, while payments are routed through multi-layer shell-company trust accounts—one observed pool of $6–$7 billion has seen major withdrawals and added layers, complicating tracing while preserving Iran’s cash flow and smuggling resilience.
Source: How Iran is making a mint from Donald Trump’s war
Subtitle: China is helping the Revolutionary Guards profit from Iranian crude
Dateline: 4月 01, 2026 06:04 上午