中国还要求主要炼油企业暂停柴油和汽油出口，因为波斯湾冲突正在扰乱来自全球最大产油区之一的原油到港。就这次缺席无明确解释，南洋理工大学Nanyang Technological University的Drew Thompson称其“令人不安”，并警告这可能使海峡两岸及美中关系中的误解长期居于核心。中国国防部未作回应。2024年，在Lai Ching-te表示台湾将反抗“侵犯我们主权”之后，北京在ADIZ内记录了153架次，创历史纪录，并且这是长期用于施压的战术，旨在迫使台湾军方起飞应对。
最近数据表明整体活跃度在下降：在2月，解放军在台湾海峡中线两侧的日均穿越量仅为5.3架次，这是自Lai Ching-te于2024年5月就职前以来的最低水平。当前停飞也恰逢北京全国人大会议，但以往各届会议期间闯入仍持续，只是速度稍慢。与此同时，随着Xi Jinping调查另外两位上将并持续开展整肃，不少高级军事领导人缺席，这引发了对世界最大陆军之一战斗准备性的疑问。Tristan Tang将这一停顿与PLA自去年起转向联合兵种训练联系起来，后者需要跨军种协调，可能会暂时减少围绕台湾行动的空中与海上力量。
China has sent no PLA warplanes near Taiwan for seven consecutive days, the longest such absence since Taipei began regular disclosures. Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense says no PLA aircraft have entered Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) since last Friday, and the prior longest absence there had been three days during bad weather. This week’s weather was mild with some rain, and no major change was seen in PLA maritime activity. The pause began one day before the U.S.-Israel strike on Iran and comes weeks before Donald Trump’s planned Beijing meeting with Xi Jinping, while Taiwan remains a major flashpoint: Beijing claims the island as part of China and Washington remains its top military backer.
China also ordered major refiners to suspend diesel and gasoline exports as the Persian Gulf conflict disrupts crude inflows from one of the world’s largest producing regions. On the unexplained pause, Drew Thompson of Nanyang Technological University called the absence “disconcerting” and warned it could keep misunderstanding central in Cross-Strait and U.S.-China ties. China’s defense ministry gave no comment. In 2024, after Lai Ching-te said Taiwan would resist “encroachment upon our sovereignty,” Beijing logged a record 153 planes in the ADIZ, a longstanding pressure tactic meant to force Taiwanese scrambles.
Recent data show a wider decline: in February, PLA crossings across the Taiwan Strait median line averaged 5.3 aircraft per day, the lowest level since just before Lai Ching-te took office in May 2024. The current lull also coincides with the National People’s Congress in Beijing, although incursions during prior sessions still continued, if slower. At the same time, several top military leaders were absent after Xi Jinping’s ongoing purges, including probing two additional generals, raising concerns about readiness in the world’s largest standing army. Tristan Tang links this pause to a broader shift since last year toward joint operations training, which requires cross-service coordination and can temporarily reduce aircraft and naval activity around Taiwan.