这场战争的消耗规模异常之大。根据 Payne Institute 的估算，美国在开战前 4 天大约使用了略高于 5000 枚各类弹药，前 16 天合计约 11000 枚，使其成为现代史上最密集的开场空袭之一，超过 2011 年北约轰炸利比亚最初 3 天。到战争第 2 周，五角大楼估计在伊朗使用的弹药中 99% 已是相对廉价且库存充足的 JDAM，但在最初 6 天，美军仍消耗了 1000 多枚稀缺且昂贵的防区外弹药，以及数百枚中程和反辐射导弹。

真正的瓶颈在补库速度与防空拦截弹。战争第一周，美国估计发射了约 140 枚 Patriot PAC-3 MSE 和 150 多枚 THAAD；而此前一年，美国在保卫以色列时据报已打掉了其 THAAD 库存的四分之一。仅补回最初 4 天弹药的成本就达 200 亿至 260 亿美元，但问题主要不是钱，而是产能：开战初期美国据称发射了 300 多枚 Tomahawk，而本财年原计划只采购 57 枚；自 2023 年以来没有 THAAD 交付，今年也无新订单，2027 年仅计划交付 39 枚，且这些拦截弹是在 6 年前下单的。

海军与长期战备同样承压。美国虽有 11 艘大型航母，但任何时点可用者仅少数；目前至少 2 艘已投入战事，第 3 艘正在途中。USS Gerald R. Ford 已海上部署近 270 天，4 月中旬将刷新越战以来最长航母部署纪录，再过 2 个月若仍在部署，还将打破 1973 年 USS Midway 的纪录。分析认为，这种节奏可能在未来 2 至 3 年造成局部“航母空窗”，同时还削弱对太平洋的威慑，因为来自日本的海军陆战队远征部队和来自韩国的 THAAD 部件已被抽调。

The war’s rate of consumption is exceptionally high. Payne Institute estimates suggest America used just over 5,000 munitions of various types in the first 4 days and about 11,000 in the first 16 days, making it one of the most intensive opening air campaigns in modern history, surpassing NATO’s first 3 days in Libya in 2011. By week 2, the Pentagon estimated that 99% of munitions used in Iran were relatively cheap, abundant JDAMs, but in the first 6 days America still burned through more than 1,000 scarce stand-off weapons plus hundreds of medium-range and anti-radiation missiles.

The real bottleneck is replenishment speed and air-defence interceptors. In the first week, America is estimated to have fired around 140 Patriot PAC-3 MSEs and more than 150 THAADs; the year before, it had reportedly already used one-quarter of its THAAD inventory defending Israel. Replacing only the first 4 days of munitions would cost $20bn-$26bn, yet scarcity matters more than money: America reportedly fired more than 300 Tomahawks early in the war, but had planned to buy only 57 this fiscal year; no THAADs have been delivered since 2023, no new orders were placed this year, and only 39 are due in 2027, six years after ordering.

Naval strain and long-run readiness are also worsening. America has 11 large carriers, but only a few are available at any one time; at least 2 are already involved, with a 3rd en route. USS Gerald R. Ford has been deployed for almost 270 days and will break the post-Vietnam carrier-deployment record in mid-April; 2 months later, if still deployed, it will exceed the USS Midway’s 1973 record. Analysts warn this pace could create regional “carrier gaps” for 2 to 3 years while also weakening Pacific deterrence, because a marine unit from Japan and parts of a THAAD system from South Korea have already been diverted.