这场冲突可视为两场并行战争：美以对伊朗的空袭，以及伊朗对全球经济的能源战。战事进入第 4 周时，五角大楼称已在伊朗境内实施超过 7000 次打击，以色列也发动了数以千计的袭击。已有 100 多艘船被击沉；据 HRANA 统计，死亡人数超过 3000 人，其中至少 1300 人是平民。与此同时，霍尔木兹海峡虽未被正式关闭，却因威胁与零星导弹、无人机袭击而形成事实性封锁。

地理与能源数据解释了为何战争易于升级却难以结束。霍尔木兹海峡最窄处仅 54 公里（34 英里），两侧山地使护航舰队反应时间只有几秒。特朗普长期关注 Kharg 岛，那里装载了伊朗 90% 的石油出口；若美军夺取该岛，油价将因伊朗约每日 100 万桶对华出口受威胁而进一步上升。与此同时，海湾国家仍在利用绕过海峡的管道出口：沙特管道最高可输送每日 700 万桶，约占其总产量的三分之二；阿联酋管道可输送其每日 340 万桶产量中的约一半；Ruwais 炼厂可加工接近每日 100 万桶。

伊朗的袭击强度虽已从战争首日约 1000 枚导弹与无人机降至如今约十分之一，但哪怕偶发袭击也足以扰乱经济。3 月 15 日，Emirates 原计划恢复至战前航班时刻表的约 60%，却因无人机残骸击中迪拜机场燃料库受挫。更广泛的经济冲击正在显现：斋月于 3 月 19 日结束后的旺季被打断，会议推迟、酒店员工被停薪留职、数千名外籍人士离开。数字趋势表明，攻击频率下降并未带来风险正常化，反而强化了各方继续削弱伊朗政权的共识。

The conflict can be seen as two parallel wars: American-Israeli air strikes on Iran and Iran’s energy war on the global economy. As the fighting entered its 4th week, the Pentagon said it had carried out more than 7,000 strikes inside Iran, while Israel had launched thousands more. More than 100 ships have been sunk; HRANA reports over 3,000 deaths, including at least 1,300 civilians. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz is not formally closed, but threats plus sporadic missile and drone attacks have created a de facto blockade.

Geography and energy arithmetic explain why escalation is easy and resolution is hard. Hormuz is only 54km (34 miles) wide at its narrowest, with mountains on both sides, leaving escort ships only seconds to react. Trump has long focused on Kharg island, where 90% of Iran’s oil exports are loaded; if America seized it, oil prices would rise further because roughly 1m barrels a day of Iranian exports to China would be at risk. At the same time, Gulf states still export through bypass pipelines: Saudi Arabia’s can carry up to 7m b/d, around two-thirds of its output; the UAE’s can move about half of its 3.4m b/d; and the Ruwais refinery can process nearly 1m b/d.

Although the scale of Iranian attacks has fallen from about 1,000 missiles and drones on day one to roughly one-tenth of that today, even occasional strikes remain highly disruptive. On March 15th Emirates hoped to restore around 60% of its pre-war flight schedule, but drone debris hit a fuel depot at Dubai airport. Broader economic damage is mounting: the post-Ramadan peak after March 19th has been interrupted, conferences postponed, hotel staff furloughed, and thousands of expats have left. The numbers show that lower attack volume has not normalized risk; it has reinforced a shared logic of further weakening Iran.