← 返回 Avalaches

在制裁下,俄罗斯航空业并未如预期崩溃:截至2026年4月30日,46家承运人仍在营运838架客机,其中460架是Airbus或Boeing机型;自2023年以来整体规模大致稳定,且2024年可用座位数仍接近2021年水准。据GlobalData估算,俄罗斯航空业去年市值可能超过300亿美元,较前一年增长约17%,而Aeroflot PJSC营收达9,023亿卢布(约110亿美元),创2000年以来新高。

供应链绕道是关键:Bloomberg News依据Big Trade Data与多方资料发现,至少30家企业去年向俄罗斯出口航空专用零件,来源包括印度、土耳其、阿联酋、哈萨克等地。典型案例是卢森堡Vallair Asset Solutions卖出两具CFM International引擎,先以约1,700万美元售予印度中介,两个月内又被转售给Rossiya Airlines,价格约2,400万美元;印度企业MEC与Chandsara、Shreegee等还把零件以明显加价方式转手,其中一项模组每件81万美元,另一具旧式CFM56-5A引擎买入价360万美元,转售价达575万美元。

俄罗斯正以本土维修与替代供应延长机队寿命。S7 Technics在2025年扩建Sheremetyevo发动机大修厂,去年完成100具引擎维修;Rosaviatsia已批准Aeroflot自行维修其Boeing与Airbus引擎。与此同时,年轻机型如A320neo家族更易停飞,因零件与Pratt & Whitney引擎故障而受影响。专家估计俄罗斯工程师数量至少增加30%,但维修成本也在上升:Aeroflot去年维保支出增长19%至680亿卢布。

3d2ef7ed6e60.png


c4194a25dd7d.png


cc54fee63071.png


8738f6893eb4.png



Russia’s airline industry has not been crippled by sanctions as expected. As of April 30, 2026, 46 carriers were operating 838 passenger jets, including 460 Airbus and Boeing aircraft, and scheduled capacity has stayed close to 2021 levels. GlobalData estimates the sector was worth more than $30 billion last year, up about 17% year over year, while Aeroflot posted 902.3 billion rubles, or about $11 billion, in revenue, its highest since at least 2000.

A hidden supply chain is helping keep those jets flying. Bloomberg News, using Big Trade Data and other records, identified at least 30 companies that exported aircraft-specific parts to Russia last year via India, Turkey, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and elsewhere. One example involved two CFM International engines sold by Vallair Asset Solutions for about $17 million and then resold within two months to Rossiya Airlines for about $24 million; other Indian traders moved parts at steep markups, including modules sold for $810,000 each and a legacy CFM56-5A engine bought for $3.6 million and resold for $5.75 million.

Russia is also expanding maintenance capacity at home. S7 Technics enlarged its Sheremetyevo engine overhaul plant in 2025 and completed repairs on 100 engines last year, while Rosaviatsia certified Aeroflot to fix Boeing and Airbus engines in-house. Still, newer A320neo jets are increasingly grounded, engineering staffing has risen by at least 30%, and Aeroflot’s maintenance costs jumped 19% to 68 billion rubles. Experts say sanctions are being blunted by third-country routing and front companies, but the sector will face mounting strain as aircraft age and parts demand rises.
2026-05-27 (Wednesday) · fb4039bcce97f498e2623b1562b9c7ab6bcc1140