这篇文章认为，World Cup 的结构使预测冠军极不可靠，因为足球比多数运动更有利于弱队。Eli Ben-Naim 等人在 2006 年研究逾一个世纪的赛果，发现英格兰足球中弱队胜率为 45%，高于篮球与美式足球约 36%。原因是足球进球稀少，单次运气即可决定比赛；即使联赛约 38 场通常让最强队胜出，World Cup 本届有 5 轮淘汰赛，多数可能以 1 球或点球决定。相比之下，Wimbledon 男子热门 Jannik Sinner 赔率 8-15，约等于三分之二胜率，而 Spain 以 5-1 夺冠仅约六分之一。
历史模式仍指向西欧。自 2006 年以来，除一队外，所有 World Cup 前三名球队都来自 Europe，其中 6 队来自 Western Europe，唯一例外是 Croatia；非欧洲同期只有 Lionel Messi 的 Argentina 能相当接近。France 是最强候选之一，过去 7 届决赛进入 4 次，2 胜，另 2 次只在点球失利，并位居 FIFA 男子排名榜首。Spain 本世纪整体实力同样突出，男子排名只略落后于 France，女子排名第一，且西班牙男足俱乐部与国家队在 2002 年至 2025 年 5 月的 27 场决赛全胜；但 18 岁 Lamine Yamal 的伤病令一个多月踢 8 场存在风险。
Argentina 作为卫冕冠军反而面临统计逆风：过去 6 个冠军中有 4 个在下届首轮出局。Messi 本月将满 39 岁，受肌肉疲劳与伤病困扰，且多名老将已逾 30 岁并在较弱联赛效力。Africa、Asia、North and Central America 的球队曾进步但后来停滞，Japan 是较可信的非欧洲候选，对欧洲球队 9 场不败。东道主曾赢得前 11 届中的 5 届，但本世纪无一进入决赛；United States 对欧洲球队已 9 连败。若有黑马，Norway 因 Erling Haaland 与地区优势最值得注意，但核心结论仍是：没有人真正知道。
The article argues that the World Cup’s structure makes predicting the winner highly unreliable because football favours underdogs more than most sports. A 2006 study by Eli Ben-Naim and colleagues, covering more than a century of results, found that underdogs won 45% of English football matches, compared with about 36% in basketball and American football. The reason is football’s scarcity of goals: one lucky moment can decide a match. While a league of roughly 38 games usually lets the strongest team prevail, this World Cup has five knockout rounds, many likely settled by one goal or penalties. By contrast, Wimbledon favourite Jannik Sinner is 8-15, implying about a two-thirds chance, while Spain at 5-1 has only about a one-in-six chance.
Historical patterns still point toward western Europe. Since 2006, all but one World Cup podium team has been European, six from western Europe and only Croatia from just beyond the old Iron Curtain; outside Europe, only Lionel Messi’s Argentina has matched that level. France look like leading candidates, having reached four of the past seven finals, winning two and losing two only on penalties, while topping the FIFA men’s ranking. Spain are similarly strong this century: fractionally behind France in the men’s ranking, first in the women’s ranking, and Spanish men’s clubs and national teams won all 27 finals they played from 2002 to May 2025. However, 18-year-old Lamine Yamal’s injuries make eight games in just over a month risky.
Argentina face the statistical burden of being defending champions: four of the past six winners exited the next tournament in the first round. Messi turns 39 this month, has muscle fatigue and injury issues, and several other veterans are over 30 and playing in weaker leagues. Teams from Africa, Asia, and North and Central America improved before stagnating; Japan, unbeaten in nine matches against Europeans, is the most credible non-European candidate. Hosts won five of the first 11 World Cups, but none has reached the final this century, and the United States have lost nine straight games against European teams. If there is a dark horse, Norway, helped by Erling Haaland and its region, stands out, but the central conclusion is that nobody truly knows.