Morningstar 认为，若 SpaceX 达成这些长期目标，目标价格可以成立；但依目前表现，公司价值仅约 7,800 亿美元。一位持有数十亿美元股份的创投人士表示，即使不计入轨道资料中心，SpaceX 也可能价值约 1 兆美元。Goldman Sachs 预测 SpaceX 的 AI 收入到 2030 年将增加 100 倍至 3,220 亿美元，Morgan Stanley 则预计其营收到 2040 年达 3.4 兆美元。
SpaceX 的核心业务由火箭发射、Starlink 卫星网路与 AI 运算基础设施组成。Starlink 最初被 Elon Musk 描述为创造 2,000 亿美元价值、支援前往 Mars 的计划，如今被部分投资人认为单独价值 1 兆美元。支持者强调 SpaceX 在可重复使用火箭和卫星方面可能有约 10 年领先优势，并指出其与 Anthropic 和 Google 合计每年 240 亿美元的运算租赁合约，但 Morningstar 警告，投资者支付的是可能但远非高度确定的情境。
SpaceX’s $1.78tn IPO valuation depends on as much as $1tn of unrealized moonshot goals, including reaching Mars with reusable rockets, putting data centres into orbit, and playing a major role in AI development. Its valuation has risen from $400bn in less than a year to $1.78tn, yet the lossmaking company would trade at 92 times last year’s revenue, far above other Big Tech multiples.
Morningstar argues the target price is justified only if SpaceX achieves these long-term ambitions; based on current performance, it values the company at just $780bn. One venture capitalist with a multibillion-dollar stake said SpaceX could be worth about $1tn without orbital data centres. Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX’s AI revenue will rise 100-fold to $322bn by 2030, while Morgan Stanley forecasts total revenue of $3.4tn by 2040.
SpaceX’s business combines rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, and AI computing infrastructure. Starlink was originally described by Elon Musk as a plan to generate $200bn in value to support reaching Mars, and some investors now see it as worth $1tn alone. Bulls cite SpaceX’s estimated 10-year lead in reusable rockets and satellites, plus $24bn a year in combined computing leases with Anthropic and Google, but Morningstar warns investors are paying for a possible rather than highly likely scenario.