在距加州大学伯克利分校校园沿电报大道约1公里的Lighthaven，“Green Mars”研讨会评估火星地球化的可行性，议题从用定向进化提高微生物耐受性、用微生物生产航天员必需品，到向火星轨道发射10亿个“太阳帆”以反射太瓦级阳光增温。火星地球化自20世纪70年代初就在期刊中讨论，1991年甚至登上《Nature》封面，而如今随着SpaceX运载火箭“部分可重复使用”并可能在1—2年内实现“完全可重复使用”，入轨成本快速下降，使该设想更接近主流。
更广泛的竞赛也在加速：美国计划在未来几年借助SpaceX与蓝色起源等商业硬件重返月球，中国亦推进类似目标；区块链富豪Jed McCaleb的VAST计划在2026年发射首座空间站Habitat-1。与此并行，“应用天体生物学”在2024年哈佛研讨会中被提出，把“寻找外星生命”和“在太空支持人类生命”视为同一问题的两面；其经济压力可量化为在轨每人每年需运送约2吨消耗品、约200万美元/吨，而当前常驻轨道人口约10人（国际空间站7人、中国空间站3人）尚可承受但随基地与火星任务扩大会迅速累积。
在技术路径上，“固态温室”设想用对可见光透明但阻挡紫外与热红外的材料（如气凝胶）覆盖风化层以升温，并结合含冰与二氧化碳的地表形成近地可居住带；更激进的模型提出以优化气溶胶将火星平均地表温度在几十年内提高约30°C（54°F），且注入速率仅约每分钟1立方米。为验证关键假设，计划用“先导”着陆器从地表释放数公斤颗粒并追踪扩散；但COSPAR的行星保护规则把“异常宜居”的区域定为“特殊区域”并禁止进入，导致“越可能有现存生命越难研究”的统计性困境，从而引发对规则修订的呼声。
It's also essential to address planetary protection, as COSPAR designates habitable areas as "Special Regions," which are off-limits. There's some tension here: not visiting these regions may diminish our chances of discovering existing life, prompting calls to revisit these protective rules.
At Lighthaven about 1 km down Telegraph Avenue from UC Berkeley, the “Green Mars” workshop weighed Mars terraforming feasibility, from directed evolution to harden microbes and microbial production of astronaut necessities to launching 1 billion “solar sails” to reflect terawatts of sunlight for warming. Terraforming has been discussed since the early 1970s and even made Nature’s cover in 1991, but falling launch costs—driven by SpaceX rockets that are partially reusable today and possibly fully reusable within 1–2 years—are pushing it toward the mainstream.
A wider race is also accelerating: the United States aims to return astronauts to the Moon in the next few years using commercial hardware from SpaceX and Blue Origin, and China is pursuing similar goals; blockchain billionaire Jed McCaleb’s VAST targets a first station, Habitat-1, in 2026. In parallel, “applied astrobiology” proposed at a 2024 Harvard workshop treats searching for extraterrestrial life and supporting human life in space as one inquiry, with pressures that quantify as roughly 2 tonnes of consumables per person per year at about $2m per tonne; the current off-Earth population is about 10 (7 on the ISS, 3 on China’s station), manageable now but compounding as bases and Mars missions scale.
Source: How to export life to Mars
Subtitle: A new science—applied astrobiology—is taking shape
Dateline: 12月 30, 2025 06:36 上午 | BERKELEY, CALIFORNIA