高盛估计，相对于未来一年的预期盈利，全球股价处在过去二十年中90%的时间之上；这对剔除大型科技股的美国股票以及美国以外上市的股票同样成立。英国和中国相对于各自近期历史看起来不那么紧绷，但几乎没有哪里显得便宜，这意味着估值押注全球企业利润异常快速增长。

彭博的一项调查发现，华尔街策略师的平均预期是标普500在2026年上涨9%，远低于过去三年23%的年化涨幅。该分歧区间至少自2018年以来最窄，从最悲观的1%到最乐观的18%。

期权价格嵌入了暴跌与暴涨的概率：行权价比当前水平低30%的看跌期权可以对冲超过该点的损失。Elm Wealth的Victor Haghani和James White推算，2026年出现超过30%回撤的概率约为8%，而过去一个世纪类似回撤的历史频率约为7%；同时，30%上涨的定价概率约为11%。

Goldman Sachs estimates that, relative to expected earnings over the next year, global stock prices are higher than they have been for 90% of the past two decades; this is also true for U.S. stocks excluding big tech and for stocks outside America. Britain and China look less stretched versus their own recent history, but almost nowhere looks cheap, implying valuations rely on unusually fast worldwide profit growth.

A Bloomberg survey finds the average Wall Street strategist expects the S&P 500 to rise 9% in 2026, far below its 23% annualised gain over the past three years. The range is the narrowest since at least 2018, from 1% (most bearish) to 18% (most bullish).

Option prices embed crash and melt-up odds: a put struck 30% below today’s level hedges losses beyond that point. Elm Wealth’s Victor Haghani and James White infer about an 8% probability of a 2026 drawdown exceeding 30% versus a roughly 7% historical frequency over the past century, while a 30% jump is priced at about 11%.

Source: Investors head into 2026 remarkably optimistic

Subtitle: Few expect a crash in the year to come

Dateline: 12月 31, 2025 09:27 上午