迪拜长期以避开地区冲突来支撑其作为全球交通与商业枢纽的地位，但在2月28日开始的袭击之后，这种安全光环被直接击中。棕榈朱美拉的费尔蒙酒店、一个亚马逊云服务数据中心、机场和杰贝阿里港都受到影响，连去年持续12天的伊朗与以色列交战都未曾如此动摇市场信心。

关键数据凸显了迪拜此前的增长速度：其人口去年增长5.6%，达到390万，为2019年以来最快；2025年上半年有1000多家公司在其金融中心设点，比一年前增加近三分之一。迪拜还拥有至少18个数据中心，占阿联酋总数的一半，而阿联酋又占海湾地区规划中数据中心投资的一半以上，并通过与微软和贝莱德的合作推进价值300亿美元的人工智能基础设施投资。

短期内，阿联酋仍表现出韧性，且大多数居民和企业没有立即撤离，但风险定价已经改变。即使多数导弹和无人机被拦截、DP World迅速恢复运营、总统于3月2日在迪拜购物中心公开露面，企业仍开始评估政治风险保险，并将迪拜与香港、新加坡、阿曼和沙特等替代选择作比较。

Dubai long relied on staying out of regional conflict to sustain its role as a global transport and business hub, but the attacks that began on February 28 hit that safety premium directly. The Fairmont on Palm Jumeirah, an Amazon Web Services data centre, the airport, and Jebel Ali port were all affected, and even last year’s 12-day Iran-Israel fighting had not shaken confidence this much.

The key numbers show how fast Dubai had been growing before the shock: its population rose 5.6% last year to 3.9m, the fastest pace since 2019, and more than 1,000 firms set up in its financial centre in the first half of 2025, almost a third more than a year earlier. Dubai also hosts at least 18 data centres, half of the UAE’s total, while the UAE accounts for more than half of the Gulf’s planned data-centre investment and is backing $30bn in AI infrastructure deals with Microsoft and BlackRock.

In the short term, the UAE still looks resilient and most residents and firms have not rushed to leave, but risk pricing has already changed. Even with most missiles and drones intercepted, DP World quickly resuming operations, and the president appearing at Dubai Mall on March 2, companies are now considering political-risk insurance and comparing Dubai more seriously with alternatives such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Oman, and Saudi Arabia.

Source: The Iran war is a jolt to Dubai’s business model

Subtitle: Can the emirate keep people and investors coming?

Dateline: 3月 05, 2026 04:15 上午 | DUBAI