英国政治正沿两条轴线重组：年龄、教育程度、性别和族裔仍然把左派与右派分开，但经济不安全感如今也在每个阵营内部撕开裂口。基于2025年12月对8,921名英国人的调查，工党和保守党在“非常宽裕”的选民中领先，而绿党和英国改革党在经常缺吃少暖的人群中拿下三分之二的支持，这一群体仅占总人口的4%。

这种民粹转向在住房和地方选举中同样明显：不拥有住房的选民正转向绿党和英国改革党，工党在租房者中的基础自大选后已瓦解，私人租户更偏向绿党，社会住房居民更偏向英国改革党。2月26日，大曼彻斯特戈顿和登顿补选中，绿党支持率从13%跃升至41%，而英国改革党把工党挤到第三名，这发生在英格兰543个选区中贫困程度排名第15的选区。

长期经济数据解释了这种零和情绪为何扩大到左翼和右翼：2007年至2024年间，研究生实际工资中位数下降17%，本科毕业生下降12%，非毕业生仅下降3%，而20岁人群一生经历的平均年度GDP增速仅为1.4%，75岁人群则为2.4%。随着18至24岁失业率达到2015年以来最高水平（不含2020年封锁高峰的短暂异常），再加上住房难以负担和对人工智能冲击白领岗位的担忧，年轻且经济脆弱的选民越来越相信一个人的收益意味着另一个人的损失。

British politics is being reorganized along two axes: age, education, gender, and ethnicity still separate left from right, but economic insecurity now splits each bloc internally. In a December 2025 survey of 8,921 Britons, Labour and the Conservatives led among voters who felt “very comfortable,” while the Greens and Reform won two-thirds of those who often went without food or heating, a group that is just 4% of the population.

This populist shift is also visible in housing and local elections: non-homeowners are moving toward the Greens and Reform, Labour’s support among renters has collapsed since the general election, private tenants lean Green, and social-housing residents lean Reform. In the February 26th by-election in Gorton and Denton, Greater Manchester, Green support jumped from 13% to 41%, while Reform pushed Labour into third place in the 15th-most deprived constituency in England out of 543.

Long-run economic data explain why zero-sum thinking is spreading on both the left and the right: from 2007 to 2024, median real pay fell by 17% for postgraduates, 12% for undergraduates, and only 3% for non-graduates, while average annual lifetime GDP growth was just 1.4% for today’s 20-year-olds versus 2.4% for 75-year-olds. With unemployment among 18-to-24-year-olds at its highest since 2015 aside from the lockdown spike in 2020, plus unaffordable housing and fears that AI will weaken white-collar job prospects, younger and more precarious voters are increasingly drawn to parties arguing that one group’s gain requires another group’s loss.

Source: Britain’s class politics is back—with a Green twist

Subtitle: Greens and Reform are turning precarious voters against the establishment

Dateline: 3月 05, 2026 07:20 上午 | Manchester