在九个核大国中，多数如今都与战争或胁迫相连：一个已经试图征服邻国四年并陷入血腥僵局；两个正在中东投弹；另一对在过去一年里发生了武装冲突，而这种模式自它们八十年前痛苦分治以来就反复出现。最新加入核俱乐部的成员是这个“隐士王国”，其更大的拥核邻国被认为正计划以“和平统一”为名入侵邻近的民主岛屿；相比之下，最后两个核大国英国和法国，尽管竞争了一个千年，如今的摩擦却缩小到学校交流规则和未巴氏杀菌奶酪进口程序之类的争执。
欧洲的突出之处不在于力量，而在于克制：在一个混乱正变成常态的世界里，它仍然坚持气候约束、保护平民、缓和紧张、追究独裁者责任、鼓励自由贸易和向最贫穷者提供援助等规则。它的权力分散在几十个经常连时间都难以达成一致的政府之间，但这种缓慢也意味着它在行动前往往会想两次、三次、甚至四次，而且很少仓促做出不可逆的决定。
这种审议式风格常被嘲笑，但文中认为它在结果上优于冲动式强权政治：欧洲的政策可以被预见到十年之后，而美国的关税到下周二都难以猜测。欧洲在20世纪90年代巴尔干战争中行动过慢，也曾长期购买普京的天然气，但在乌克兰战争中它如今几乎单独为基辅提供资金；与此同时，中国和印度通过进口廉价石油获利，而在本周的伊朗危机中，欧洲大致拿出了和它拥有的政客一样多的立场。
Among the nine nuclear powers, most are now tied to war or coercion: one has spent four years trying to conquer a neighbor and reached bloody stalemate; two are bombing the Middle East; another pair fought armed skirmishes in the past year, repeating a pattern that has persisted since their bitter partition eight decades ago. The newest member of the nuclear club is the hermit kingdom, while its larger warhead-holding neighbor is presumed to be planning to invade a nearby democratic island under “peaceful reunification”; by contrast, the final two nuclear powers, Britain and France, after a millennium of rivalry, now quarrel over school-exchange rules and unpasteurized-cheese import procedures.
Europe stands out not for force but for restraint: in a world where chaos is becoming the norm, it still clings to rules about climate limits, civilian protection, easing tensions, holding autocrats accountable, encouraging free trade, and delivering aid to the poorest. Its power is diffused across dozens of governments that often struggle to agree even on the time of day, yet that slowness also means it often thinks twice, three times, or four times before acting and rarely makes irreversible decisions in a hurry.
That deliberative style is often mocked, but the piece argues that it outperforms impulsive great-power politics in outcomes: Europe’s policies can be forecast a decade ahead, while America’s tariff rates are hard to predict by next Tuesday. Europe was too slow in the Balkan wars of the 1990s and long kept buying Putin’s gas, yet in Ukraine it is now almost single-handedly financing Kyiv; meanwhile China and India profit by importing cheap oil, and in this week’s Iran crisis Europe has produced roughly as many positions as it has politicians.
Source: In times of chaos, Europe is the muddled power the world needs
Subtitle: In praise of the dreaded European working group
Dateline: 3月 05, 2026 08:32 上午