这种定价与公开杠杆贷款的表现形成鲜明对比：Morningstar LSTA 美国杠杆贷款指数中软体与服务部门的贷款，今年以来已亏损近 6%。在存量结构方面，大型企业借款人仍主导第一留置权贷款，但过去 1 年内，upper-middle 与 middle-middle market 公司的占比正在上升。Kroll StepStone 将 large corporate 定义为最近 12 个月 EBITDA 超过 1.5 亿美元，且营收与借款均高于 7.5 亿美元；较小区间则落在 EBITDA 7,500 万至 1.5 亿美元与 2,500 万至 7,500 万美元，营收与借款约 3.75 亿至 7.5 亿美元及 1.25 亿至 3.75 亿美元。
最关键的统计讯号是，过去 10 年美国与欧洲新私募信贷贷款的整体利差已降至新低，但这发生在借款人利息保障倍数中位数接近 10 年低点、而美国杠杆又并不低的背景下。以 180 天回溯期观察，图表显示的并非「保障较弱对应较高利差」的正常对角线，而是从「尚可保障下的高溢价」移向「保障偏弱下的低利差」。文章因此认为，大量资金，尤其寿险资本流入，可能压缩了风险溢酬；在估值依赖模型与新发行定价的市场中，私募信贷的平稳报酬或许反映成熟化，也或许反映接近自满的定价。
Kroll LLC and StepStone have built a private-credit benchmark set that covers roughly two-fifths of the market, excluding leases and structured finance. The latest snapshot includes almost 3,000 loans with a combined par amount of just over $1tn, about 2 times the value held by public and private business development companies. The data helps show how contractual spreads on newly originated US technology private-credit loans have moved: spreads have widened, but only slightly, and in some cases investors are being offered higher spreads in the public high-yield tech bond market than in the deeply illiquid private-credit market.
That pricing looks striking against public leveraged-loan performance: loans in the software and services segment of the Morningstar LSTA US leveraged loan index are down almost 6% year to date. In the stock of loans outstanding, large corporate borrowers still dominate first-lien private credit, but upper-middle and middle-middle market firms have gained share over the past year. Kroll StepStone defines large corporates as borrowers with last-12-month EBITDA above $150mn and both revenue and borrowings above $750mn; the smaller bands run from $75mn-$150mn and $25mn-$75mn of EBITDA, with revenue and borrowings around $375mn-$750mn and $125mn-$375mn.
The most important statistical signal is that overall spreads on new private-credit loans in the US and Europe are hitting new lows even as median borrower interest cover is near decade lows and US leverage is not especially low. Using a 180-day look-back, the chart shows not the normal diagonal of weaker cover paired with higher spreads, but a shift from fat premiums for acceptable cover to thin spreads for thin cover. The article therefore argues that heavy capital inflows, especially from life insurers, may have compressed risk premia; in a market where valuations rely on models and new-issue pricing, private credit's smooth returns may reflect maturity, but they may also reflect pricing close to complacency.