需求与运力的量化增长极端：印度商用机队从 2000 年约 100 架增至目前接近 900 架；本土航空公司已下单超过 1,500 架（全球最大国别订单量之一）；机场数目计划到 2047 年增至 350。IATA 预估到 2044 年将新增 4.25 亿名旅客，几乎是 2024 年水准的近 3 倍；而「十年前」国内旅客约 8,100 万人，约为去年的一半，显示需求长期呈倍增趋势。
监管与人力资源明显跟不上：DGCA 在 1,063 个技术职缺中仅补足 553（约 52%），并有 4,295 名航管；对照之下，美国 FAA 共有 46,170 名员工、含 14,000 名航管与 7,000 名安全检查员。预算差距同样巨大：DGCA 年度约 3,800 万美元，远低于 FAA 2024 年约 230 亿美元。稽核另揭露 93 项（Air India）、23 项（IndiGo）、14 项（SpiceJet）缺失；IndiGo 十年间日航班由 500 增至逾 2,200 并达约 66% 市占，但新机交付售罄至 2030 年代初，令竞争修复更受限制。
India’s aviation boom is showing systemic strain as crises hit its two dominant carriers. IndiGo holds about two-thirds of the domestic market; together with Air India it controls nearly nine out of ten domestic seats, so disruptions scale quickly. In early December, pilot shortages and software glitches triggered thousands of cancellations and stranded roughly 500,000 passengers, prompting regulators to order a 10% cut in IndiGo’s routes. Air India, amid its Tata-led turnaround, faced major operational lapses and a fatal 787 crash that killed 241.
Growth metrics are outsized. India’s commercial fleet rose from about 100 aircraft in 2000 to nearly 900 today, while local airlines have ordered over 1,500 planes and the country plans to expand airports to 350 by 2047. IATA forecasts an additional 425 million passengers by 2044—nearly tripling 2024 levels. A decade ago, airlines carried about 81 million domestic passengers, roughly half of last year’s volume, underscoring rapid demand expansion alongside capacity buildout pressures.
Oversight capacity lags far behind the expansion. As of July, the DGCA had filled 553 of 1,063 technical posts and employed 4,295 air traffic controllers; the US FAA had 46,170 employees, including 14,000 controllers and 7,000 safety inspectors. Budget disparity is similarly stark: roughly $38 million for DGCA versus $23 billion for the FAA in 2024. A July audit cited 93 lapses at Air India, 23 at IndiGo, and 14 at SpiceJet, reinforcing concerns that high growth without commensurate staffing, funding, and infrastructure increases fragility.
